Gambar orang mancing di atas persis spt kehidupan para losser di forex: mau santai2 dpt duit, tapi lihat...
Yg pertama trading di tahan wkt sdg loss.
Yg kedua profit sedikit2 diambil.

Kedua kebiasaan itu ilusi yang akan menghasilkan cara trading yang loss. Sikap yang benar seharusnya adalah: quick cut loss & let the profit run. Sewaktu merencanakan entry kita sudah tahu dimana kita akan cut loss, dan itu harus ditaati. Sedangkan profitnya tdk usah kita pikirkan, krn begitu arah kita benar maka kita tahan/hold posisi open kita selama mungkin dg memasang SL yg digeser2. Tidak penting berapa kali kita menang, yang penting waktu kalah kita lossnya terbatas dan waktu menang profitnya buanyakkk.
Klik gambar di bawah ini utk melihat bgm seharusnya kehidupan kita sbg pendekar forex
You can be FREE.
You can live and work anywhere in the world.
You can be independent of routine and not answer to anybody.
This is the life of a successful trader

A road diverged in a wood and I took the one less traveled by. And that has made all the difference

Forex Scalping

It’s a traders dream, getting in and out of the market each day and earning a few hundred dollars here and there which over time to make huge long term profits.

It’s the aim of an increasing number of traders, but you need to be aware of one important fact.

Day trading does not work and intra day trading in forex markets means the only person who gets scalped is the person trying it – normally of their entire trading account quickly.

So why doesn’t forex day trading and scalping work?

The answer is obvious if you think about it, so here it is:

Each day trillions of dollars are traded by millions of traders who fall into four main groups:

1. Hedgers

Who are not looking to profit from currency fluctuations but simply looking to hedge their portfolios.

2. Central Banks

Big players, who intervene occasionally to stabilize currency, markets should they believe it necessary.

3. Large traders

Well capitalized individuals and professional money managers.

4. Small speculators

Everyone else.

They all think differently and they all have different objectives and different methods and to say you predict what these vast diverse groups or traders will do in under a day or less is laughable.

But people buy into the myth and they lose all the time.

So why do people attempt it?

Well many are attracted by marketing copy that promise riches with low risk, but of course the people who tell them this and sell them the secrets, don’t trade themselves they make their money selling courses.

Other traders think it is a low risk way to trade but if you cannot predict where short term volatility will take prices you will lose – you can’t get the odds in your favour and may as well flip a coin.

So forex scalping does not work and by its nature will never work as volatility can and does take prices anywhere in a day.

Ever seen anyone who sells a course or claims to have made money forex scalping with the proof?

By this I mean a real time track record ( not a meaningless hypothetical track record done in hindsight) no neither have I.

Forex scalping is not a guaranteed way to win, it’s a guaranteed way to lose in forex trading and lose quickly.

Forget the hype of forex scalping and see the reality for what it is, a great way to lose.

If you want to trade currency markets get the odds in your favour by trading in periods where the data can actually help you put the odds in your favour.



Forex scalping is “the word” these days! It offers to give you handsome profits with out much of a risk. So lets get started in this article. We are going to cover the facts related to forex scalping for beginners.

Forex Scalping works this way. You look to make a neat profit by making small regular trading within a set time frame. I would put it in a more simple way. You make very small trades, therefore risking a small amount of money ( Of course when you profit as well, you a gain a small amount). You make plenty of such small transactions within a day. So you actually hope that little drops of water will make a mighty ocean. The fact of the matter is that it has never worked and never will.

Why?

Because Forex scalping is simply based on an incorrect belief or logic or whatever you want to call it. Infact, I am going to show you in the article why forex scalping can be the easiest way to lose your money in forex trading. Read on!!

Let us first take a look at the market and how they move.

We have approximately Trillions of dollars traded in the market daily by millions of traders. So, it will be ridiculous for us to assume that we can predict what this vast mass of traders will do in a short period of time

Let me direct you towards a Fact:

“All short-term volatility is random.”

That means?

Yes, that means prices can go up and down ( up or down? No one can predict). Infact , Neither Support and resistance levels are valid nor any of the technical indicators you have. All will fail in this random environment.

“I have seen successful track records though!”

Sure you have – and they are sold by vendors with a vested interest.

There are loads of them and they are all designed to bring forex scalping to beginners - for a few hundred bucks you get rich, Ha Ha ! that’s Laughable to me!

Please Consider a reality check!

These vendors make the much promising forex scalping systems. Hey , why don’t you guys do forex scalping instead of making these systems. They know it wont work. Hence, lure the unsuspecting ones in to forex scalping

What will be shown to you by them are amazing track records with neat profits with draw downs being a rarity and almost non-existent. A little of your common sense coming in to play will tell you that its too good to be true. And when you get an intuition like that, it probably is “TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE”

Many traders fall in the scheme, lose big time and still wonder “WHY?” or worse “WHY ME”

Take a closer look at the forex scaling track records, you will see the words “hindsight” or “simulation” written all over the track record as a disclaimer.

What does this imply?

That the track record is done in hindsight and simulated, knowing the closing prices!

How hard is that?

Any eight year old kid could do that and so could anyone who can read and write and you can to – My friends, these track records are useless and not even worth the paper they are written on.

Of course , you can try looking for an authentic track record. Take my word that it will take you a long time. I never found one in my life. SO if you do come across one, sure let me know.

The fact is forex scalping for beginners takes advantage of innocent and gullible investors who think making a profit is that easy and they don’t stop to think how authentic these systems are or what logic is in scalping?

If You Want to Win

You need to have odds in your favour. That simply means that you need to trade within longer time frames. That rules forex scalping out

If you are just a beginner at forex trading and looking to make a plunge in the forex market, Make a detailed study on the market. Follow the market for few months before investing your hard money in it. You can find some great ebooks here to get you started.
Do avoid the scheming companies wanting you to try forex scalping for the much-promised handsome profits, which will never materialize and do visit my blog for more articles and updates.

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Eighteen Tips in Forex

You can never have too many tips or tricks up your sleeve when you are trading. Most of the tips I’m including here are received wisdom, trading truisms that you should remember. They apply to all markets, but are particularly useful in a volatile and technical market like the FOREX

  1. Pay attention to the market. Exit and enter trades based on market information. Don’t wait for a price you think the currency should hit when the market has changed direction on you.
  1. There are times when, due to a lack of liquidity or excessive volatility, you should not trade at all. On a similar note, never trade when you are sick. You can’t count on yourself to be alert to the shifts of the markets, and make good decisions.
  1. Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market, and a system that works for trending markets, or for range bound markets may not work in other markets. Have a system for each type of market.
  1. Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS there, but you have to look for the dominant trends. Always select trades that move with the trends
  1. During the blowout stage of the market, either up or down, the risk managers are usually issuing margin call position liquidation orders. They don't generally check the screen to see what’s overbought or oversold; they just keep issuing liquidation orders. Make sure you stay out of their way.
  1. Trust your instincts. If something feels wrong about a trade, don’t make it. It’s better to be superstitious than to loose money.
  1. Rumour is king. Buy when you hear the rumour, sell when you hear the news.
  1. The first and last ticks are always the most expensive. Get in the market late, and out early. And never trade in the direction of a gap, either opening or closing.
  1. When everyone else is in, it's time for you to get out. If a stock or currency is overbought, it’s time to exit your position.
  1. Don’t worry about missing out on an opportunity to trade. There will always be another good one just around the corner. If the trade you are considering doesn’t meet all your entry signals but it seems to good to pass up, remember, you’re never going to run out of trades you can make.
  1. Don’t get too confident. No one can predict the market with 100% accuracy. You need to always expect the unexpected. If you become uneasy, or the market becomes choppy, exit your trades.
  1. Don't turn three losing trades in a row into six. When you’re off, turn off the screen, do something else. Often the best way to break a streak of consecutive loses is to not trade for a day.
  1. But, don't stop trading when you’re on a winning streak.
  1. Measure your success by the profit made in a day, not on a trade. It’s even better to measure it over two or three days. A successful trader’s goal is to make money, not to win on every trade.
  1. Scalpers reduce the number of variables affecting market risk by being in a position only for a few seconds. Day traders reduce market risk by being in trades for minutes. If you convert a scalp or day trade into a position trade, you probably didn’t analyze the risks of the trade properly.
  1. There is no secret to understanding the market. You can spend much of your valuable time and money looking for these kinds of secrets. It’s better to take the time to create a solid trading system, and realize that the secret to success is hard work.
  1. Never ask for someone else's opinion, they probably didn’t do as much homework as you did anyways.
  1. When the market is going up, say it out loud. When the market is going down, say that out loud too. You’ll be amazed at how hard it is to say what is going on right in front of you when you want it the market to be doing something else.


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How To Lose Everything - The Worst Trading Strategy Ever That You Might Be Using

You may be wondering, “Why we need to know about the worst trading strategy around?” There are a couple of reasons. First, to warn you about it. You really don't want to end up using this system. Secondly, because once you know the worst possible strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.

With what you learn from this system, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The strategy I'm referring to, which is simply the worst system I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This is the process of buying more shares of a stock that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.

Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.

Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking stock to decrease their overall average price per share. This strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a traders losses if the stock keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn't mean it's not going to get any cheaper. However, let's examine how this devastating strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.

The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this strategy – to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he'd already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.

Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a stock that's losing their money.

Now, imagine this strategy being applied to a portfolio of stocks. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing stocks in the portfolio while the best performing stocks are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.

If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this strategy is that a trader's gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is – never average down. The process of buying a stock, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you'll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you'll ask yourself, “Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?”

Instead, craft a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.

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Kebetulan dan Kepastian Dlm Hidup & Trading

Di dunia ini setiap hari bisa saja terjadi banyak sekali kejadian yang membawa keberuntungan dan juga kemalangan. Ketika mendapat keberuntungan, banyak orang tidak menganggap bahwa hal itu adalah berkah (pahala) dari perbuatan baik. Mendapatkan balasan baik selalu ditafsirkan sebagai suatu hal yang kebetulan terjadi, alasannya adalah masih banyak orang yang berbuat kebaikan sampai sekarang pun masih belum mendapatkan balasan baik; namun ketika kemalangan menimpa, orang juga tidak menganggap bahwa hal tersebut adalah balasan dari perbuatan jahat mereka, malah menafsirkan kemalangan tersebut sebagai kejadian yang kebetulan, alasannya adalah didunia ini masih banyak orang jahat yang kejahatannya walau sudah bertumpuk-tumpuk namun masih juga tidak mendapatkan balasan atas kejahatannya.

Namun jikalau ditelaah dengan serius, akan memahami bahwa setiap hal yang terjadi didalam dunia manusia tidak ada satupun yang kebetulan. Orang-orang sering menyebut manifestasi dari sebuah materi yang sering dijumpai ataupun yang tidak pernah dijumpai sebagai sebuah “kebetulan”, banyak kebetulan bukanlah kebetulan melainkan adalah sebuah kepastian. Maka dari itu jika melakukan analisa terhadap manifestasi sebuah materi yang muncul dengan kebetulan, akan mendapatkan bahwa kebetulan hanyalah tampak luarnya, kepastian adalah hakikinya.

Misalkan ketika seseorang sedang sakit atau mengalami kecelakaan lalu lintas, kebanyakan orang bilang bahwa hal ini adalah suatu kebetulan, akan tetapi didalam kehidupan seseorang, munculnya proses lahir, tua, sakit, mati adalah suatu kepastian. Hanya saja manusia tidak bisa meramalkan kapan terjadi; ketika seseorang sangat beruntung didalam suatu undian/lotre, telah mendapatkan hadiah besar, semua orang akan bilang itu adalah sebuah kebetulan. Akan tetapi didalam undian/lotre pasti akan ada orang yang mendapatkan hadiah, hanya manusia tidak bisa meramalkan siapa yang bakal mendapatkan hadiah. Ketika seseorang keluar rumah, diluar dugaan berjumpa dengan temannya atau kenalannya, orang-orang juga bisa berkata bahwa hal itu adalah kebetulan, akan tetapi jika seseorang keluar rumah untuk menuruti kemauannya bertemu dengan orang lain adalah sebuah kepastian. Hanya saja dia tidak bisa meramalkan bakal siapa yang akan dijumpai....

Ini menunjukkan bahwa kebetulan adalah tampak luar dari suatu kejadian, dia berbentuk. Kepastian adalah hakiki dari suatu kejadian, dia tidak berbentuk. Tampak luar yang berbentuk mendapatkan penentuan dan bergantung pada hakiki yang tak berbentuk. Maka dari itu proses meneliti perkembangan dari suatu kejadian hendaknya menembus gejala luar dengan melihat hakikinya.

Di dunia ini banyak orang yang tidak ingin mengakui keberadaan balasan dari sebab dan akibat, oleh karena dia telah berbuat kejahatan, juga ada sebagian orang yang telah berbuat kebaikan tapi tidak segera mendapatkan balasan kebaikan lalu dia tidak mengakui keberadaan balasan dari sebab dan akibat, maka dari itu mereka mengatakan orang baik yang mendapatkan balasan baik sebagai suatu kebetulan, begitu juga kepada orang jahat yang mendapatkan balasan kejahatan disebutnya sebagai suatu kebetulan. Kenyataannya jika seseorang banyak melakukan kejahatan pasti akan mendapatkan balasan kejahatan, hanya mereka tidak bisa meramal kapan dia akan menerima balasannya. Balasan dari kebaikan dan kejahatan juga siklus dari sebab dan akibat bagaikan sebuah jala yang tak kelihatan, jaring langit bermata besar, tapi tidak ada suatu apapun yang bisa lolos, dengan adil mengikat seluruh kehidupan yang ada didunia ini. Jika manusia tidak mempercayai lagi akan keberadaannya yang dikarenakan kasat mata, hal itu bagaikan mencuri lonceng dengan menutup telinga.

Kebetulan dan kepastian meskipun hanya terpaut dengan pikiran sekilas, namun bisa merefleksikan taraf pemikiran dari seseorang. Di dunia ini orang yang benar-benar pintar juga seorang kultivator, mereka tahu bahwa kebetulan itu tidak eksis, semua peristiwa yang terjadi didunia ini memiliki kepastian. Didalam kekaburan, terdapat kehendak langit. Mulai dari hukum alam yang mengatur lahir tua sakit mati dari kehidupan seorang manusia, hingga hukum yang mengatur perkembangan peradaban manusia, tidak ada satupun yang luput dari genggaman kehendak Langit.

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Forex Trading Tips

This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips
on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.

Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.

The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.

Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.

Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.

Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:

Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);

Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.

Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.

No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.

Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.

The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.

Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.

Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.

Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.

Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.

Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.

Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.

Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.
The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.

Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.

Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.

Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.

Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.

Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.

The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.

Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.

Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.

Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.

Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.

Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.

Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.

Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).

One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.

Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.

Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.

Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.

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Because human are all the same

Be it a passionate young Nick Leeson,
or a family man Rusnak of Allied Irish Bank, they are all human. And human are all the same. Human has emotions. Human has creativity. Let alone the creativity be used when developing a system. And the emotion be the motivator for developing a better system. But when trading a live account, let the system run itself with 0% emotion and creativity. That is why great successful traders use 100% mechanical trading systems.

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Don't hate market makers.Trade like them.

Successful market makers have controlled the ego
-based need to be absolutely correct. Because markets are constantly in motion, it is almost impossible to be exactly right on (in your entries).” Such a probative approach to the markets is at the heart of most successful professional trading.
Dealers know full well that their first foray into the trade is often wrong. They rarely commit the full position amount on the first try.
One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is that professionals scale into trades while amateurs average down. This statement may seem like clever wordplay, but it’s not. Let’s assume that both the professional and the amateur decide to risk two percent of their capital account on a particular trade. The professional knows full well that he will not be able to hit the exact entry point on his first attempt. Therefore, he may allocate only 0.3% of his capital to the first entry, 0.6% on the second and 1.2% to the third – and stop himself out at -2.7% away from original entry price (-2% risk).. Read more here.

Having dispensed with disclaimers, let’s examine one common strategy many retail traders like to follow – the break-out trade. Using dealing methodology, here is an approach to possibly make the trade less risky. As shown in Figure 1, the trader can scale into the trade three times. By diversifying his position, he does not even need to have price exceed his initial entry point to record a profitable trade! If, however, he is correct in anticipating the direction, he still can capture the move with a partial entry. Consequently, by modifying the risk, the retail speculator can improve

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Trade only the price:Despite

It shows how profitable traders/fund managers do their trading.

He is an old pro trader. He runs one of the largest clearing firms on the NYMEX. He has his unique way of doing things and clearly is not a trend follower. That said, his concern about knowing how to take losses properly echoed the wisdom of Wall Street's great trend traders. His most interesting comment was about the word "despite". He loved to see the word. For example, if you see the talking heads saying, "Despite bad news Apple stock went higher", he would view that as an opportunity to go long even more. Conversely, if he saw "despite good news, Apple went lower", he would go short. He wasn't trying to preach fundamentals or "news" reading, but just wanted to pass along his insights from the last 20 years. Sure, it was short and simple wisdom, but then again most good Wall Street wisdom is that way, the hard part as he reminded me is the execution.
A quick note: DESPITE of whatever the news and fundamentals say, they trade the price. But this doesn't mean they use technical analysis mumbo jumbo. Not analysis. Not prediction.

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Algorithmic trading. There's no other way better.

Penggunaan mechanical system dalam bentuk EA di MT4, dibandingkan dgn trading manual dgn menggunakan segala kemampuan berfikir manusia beserta unsur emosi dan psikologinya, saya sendiri punya pegangan dalil2 sebagai berikut:

dalil #1:
utk trading, kita hrus pakai metoda atau strategi yg kita yakini bahwa kalau dijalankan, akan profit. metoda atau strategi ini bisa macem2, bisa mekanis ataupun murni feeling, atau tebak2an.. tapi prinsipnya adalah kita akan menjalankan aktifitas trading menggunakan suatu cara -apapun itu bentuknya- yang kita yakini memberi peluang besar utk profit. Lha kalo kita gak punya strategi yg kita rasa akan profit, kita tentu gak akan bisa memulai trading kan ya?


dalil #2:
untuk bisa memilih strategi yang kita yakini akan profit, tentu kita harus melihat dulu, kira-kira apa bener suatu ide tentang strategi itu bakalan profit. Misalnya kalau ada ide strategi trading berupa: "buy kalau market retrace di fibo, lalu exit saat overbought", tentu akan wajar sekali kalau kita cek ke historical, lihat2 secara visual di historical chart, apakah kalau kita lakukan strategi itu memang benar ada peluang akan profit. Lalu kalau ternyata kita harus perhatikan kondisi tertentu seperti big news time dll, itu juga kita lihat di historical. Hal ini tentu merupakan hal yg biasa dalam mencari-cari ide trading, kan? Setiap trader yg berusaha mencari strategi pilihannya, pasti melakukan hal ini, yaitu pemeriksaan historical, atau istilahnya backtest. backtest ini bisa manual/visual, atau mekanis utk lebih akurat.

dalil #3:
memeriksa suatu ide strategi tertentu dengan teknik pemeriksaan visual secara manual, memiliki banyak sekali kelemahan dan keterbatasan.
Kelemahan2 itu antara lain:

- seringkali kita memeriksa dengan bias/keberpihakan. seorang trader yg terlatih mungkin bisa mengurangi faktor ini. keberpihakan ini maksudnya begini mas: kita lakukan pengamatan visual untuk mencari pembenaran dari ide strategi kita. Jadi tiap kali kita lihat kejadian kalau kriteria entry-exit yg kita ingin periksa ternyata menghasilkan profit, kita hanya perhatikan itu saja. Kita lupa perhatikan bahwa ada banyak kondisi yang ternya berakibat kerugian, dan itu kita abaikan krn hasilnya tidak seperti yg kita inginkan. We see what we want to see.

- kelemahan parah lainnya adalah adanya faktor "oversight", yaitu misalnya kita buy kalau marketnya breakout ke atas suatu trend line, kita pikir kita bisa jalankan strategi itu, padahal trend line nya terbentuk dari titik-titik fraktal sebelum dan sesudah kejadian itu. ya ini contoh ekstrim, tapi kesalahan "oversight" ini sering kali dialami oleh orang2 yg baru mulai mencoba mengembangkan strategi trading.

- kelemahan lain: bila di historical chart kita melihat ada move naik yg 'bagus', dan kita ingin bisa menangkap gerakan itu dan mengkapitalisasi profit dari gerakan itu, lalu kita cari2 kondisi yg mendahului gerakan ini, lalu kita anggap kita menemukan suatu strategi. begitu terus kita lakukan tiap kali kita lihat ada gerakan 'bagus' di market yg ingin bisa kita tangkap, kita coba-coba cari kondisi di market yg mendahuluinya. padahal kondisi itu berbeda2, dan itu hanya kelihatan kalau kita sudah lihat gerakan 'bagus' yg kita inginkan.

SEMUA kelemahan dan keterbatasan ini akan hilang kalau kita lakukan pemeriksaan menggunakan teknik non-manual, misalnya pakai program statistik, di excel, atau pakai backtesternya metatrader.


dalil #4
Kemudian kita sudah menemukan suatu strategi yg ternyata memang profit, misalnya tiap kali market bikin triangle di jam tertentu, lalu break ke atas saat MACD di long term mengarah naik -- dan ini semua sudah ditest dengan cara yg akurat dan menghasilkan kesimpulan-kesimpulan sbb:
- "ooohhh... strategi ini kalau dijalankan memang profit"
- "rata2 dalam sebulan, kena SL hanya 5 kali, sedangkan selebihnya rata2 ada 20 yang kena TP"
Kalau kita sudah punya strategi yg setelah diperiksa memberi kesimpulan2 bagus seperti ini, tentu kita ingin menjalankannya secara disiplin kan?
Nah di sini lah faktor psikologi seringkali sangat mengganggu. Seringkali strategi yg seharusnya profit, tapi malah menjadi merugikan karena tradernya terganggu dari segi psikologi. Macem2 masalah psikologi yg bisa terjadi mas. Misalnya utk contoh trader yg pakai strategi triangle breakoutnya tadi:
- Sang trader enggan menuruti rules nya sendiri krn tiba2 ngerasa "kok kayaknya ngeri ya, buy di sini, walaupun triangle udah break ke atas, tapi kan market udah naik tinggi beberapa hari belakangan ini"..
- Sang trader tiba-tiba mengambil posisi trade padahal tidak ada kondisi yg sesuai dengan rules nya, krn tiba2 berfikir "ini mestinya bakalan naik nih, walaupun gak ada triangle, tapi ini kan marketnya udah bolak-balik di bawah resistance ini, jadi sekarang udah break, kita mesti buruan masuk nih supaya nggak ketinggalan".
- dan masalah ketidak-disiplinan lainnya, terutama masalah exit, menggeser SL, position sizing yg seenak perutnya, dsb dsb dsb..

nah kalau kita udah test/periksa ide strategi kita dengan menggunakan teknik yg akurat, misalnya menggunakan algoritma di metatrader, mestinya strategi itulah yg akan kita jalankan dengan disiplin kan.. disiplin artinya disiplin, nggak diubah2. gak dibikin pengecualian2 yg bebeda-beda tiap saat. kalau memang ada kondisi yg akan dikecualikan, misalnya gak akan trading kalau market New York libur, ya itu mesti diperiksa juga di historical kalau dilakukan begitu hasilnya gimana, apa memang lebih baik atau tidak. Kalau memang lbih baik, ya itu lah yg hrus dijalankan dengan disiplin, dst.

Trading dengan disiplin ini semua akan jauh lebih mudah bila kita jalankan strategi kita menggunakan suatu computer-programmed algorithm, misalnya pakai tools alert di MT4, atau bahkan pakai tools automatic trading di MT4 menggunakan EA itu.


dalil #5
Kalau kita tidak percaya dengan suatu strategi akan profit dijalankan krn kita pikir market akan berubah sehingga misalnya di contoh di atas, strategi triangle dan MACD itu kayaknya cuman profit di dulu2 aja, tapi besok2 belum tentu, ya lalu kita tidak punya alasan yg kuat utk menjalankannya, bukan? Di sini, menurut saya, kembali ke faktor psikologi dan rasional.

Kalau strategi tarik2 garis dgn supp/res atau fibo itu kita pikir gak akan profit lagi di masa depan, ya berarti kita gak akan pakai strategi itu juga. Kalau kita gak percaya suatu strategi punya harapan akan profit, lalu dengan apa kita akan trading dong. Sampai saat ini, sepenjang pengetahuan saya, utk menjalankan suatu strategi utk ditradingkan live, setidaknya kita hrus punya harapan bhwa strategi itu akan profit kalau dijalankan. Lebih baik lagi tidak hanya harapan, tapi juga keyakinan, yg kita dapatkan dari hasil pemeriksaan yg menunjukkan hasil yg baik, dan pemeriksaannya akurat.
Dan kalau kita yakin strategi trsebut mestinya profit, tentu kita ingin lakukan dengan disiplin se-disiplin-disiplinnya, kan.

Semua dalil2 dalam pengembangan dan eksekusi strategi trading di atas tadi menunjukkan argumentasi yg sangat kuat utk menggunakan automated system. Gak ada pilihan lain, menurut saya.
Kalaupun artificial intelligence kita percaya bisa menjadi tool yg lbih baik, dan kita tidak percaya thd strategi yg hanya linear matematis biasa, ya lakukan itu. Do whatever you want to do.
Kalau setelah kita periksa suatu strategi secara akurat menggunakan EA di MT4, lalu forward testing menunjukkan hasil bagus juga, tapi begitu mau live kita malah tidak percaya bahwa market akan berlaku begitu lagi, ya kita punya hak penuh utk tidak menggunakan strategi itu utk live. Don't do anything we don't wanna do.
Tapi kalau dalam keadaan itu lalu kita drop out strategi itu hanya krn tidak berani, ya lalu mau trading pakai strategi apa? There's no any other way better.

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arah teknik tradingku

arahkan semua ke weekly, krn byk kelebihannya:
1.semua org di dunia sama open closenya: asia open, usa close
2.kebal news
3.TP gede
4.bisa mengerjakan yg lain

Asal kita pake teknik break pada akhirnya "in the long run" kita akan menang.
- Turtle, break 5 bar
- K2P break peak
- Pattern, semua pattern adalah break: rectangle,segi3,H&S,flag dll
- Tlatomi, conform indicator break
- asia H & L break range
- pola 123
- spike
- nail market
- triple screen
- dll

Teknik break ini sering kalah tp dikit, kalo menang bykkk. Jadi intinya cuma hrs berani loss dg udah diperhitungkan dulu.Cut loss short & let profit run

Di sini LIMIT benar2 dilarang keras. Limit & hedging adalah suatu teknik yg menjebak, ini dipakai para bandar utk membodohi trader & nasabah

NB. Kalau mau entry break di market SWISS ditunda dulu, krn byk jebakan

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Successful Forex Trading

Forex trading is fast becoming one of the easiest ways to earn large amounts of money on your investment. Then again, it can also be the easiest way to lose all of your money in a short period of time. That is, if you do not know what you are doing. The fact is that even seasoned traders make mistakes and only through the understanding of basic principles and the application of sound strategies can you be assured of earning money in the long run.

One of the most basic things that you have to understand about Forex trading is that there will always be losing streaks along with the winning ones. Having this fact in mind will keep you going during those times that you do not get a good deal. The best way to handle Forex trading is to have a reliable trading system coupled with a rigid money management system.

There are many different strategies employed in Forex trading today. What you should do is either adopt one of them or come up with your own. No matter which path you choose to take, the important thing is that your trading system has been proven or can be proven to be reliable. How would you know that your trading system is reliable?

It is quite simple, really. A reliable trading system is one which gives you more winning trades than losing ones. More than this, your winning trades should be – in general – of greater value than your losing trades. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out. More wins with greater value equals profits. No matter how you come up with your trading system, the bottom line is that you get consistent results.

Once you have come up with your trading strategy, try it out first. You can do this by using a demo account before trading live. Using a demo account is advantageous as you will be doing exactly the same thing as live trading – without real money. This way, you can test your strategy and pick out the flaws f there are any.

If, after you have tested your strategy, you are confident that you are getting consistent results, you could go live. Your strategy should not stop there, though. Once you engage in live trading, you must take care to instill strict discipline when it comes to money management. Do not deviate from your strategy once it is put in place. This is perhaps the foremost reason for traders to suddenly lose everything. Always remember that you cannot win all the time and that losses are part of trading. If you have a strategy in place, do not scramble to recoup your losses outside the boundaries of your strategy. The trend is that winning will come soon after your losses.

One rule you should stick to is never trading with more than 2% of your account at risk on a single trade. Whether you win or lose, this percentage is going to get you the long term results that you are aiming for.

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Short Term Trading

Profitable trading dengan long term trend following itu jelas2 nyata.Saya selalu sebut contoh turtle system yg dari curtis faith, yg kemudian kami bikin EA nya exactly as the said rules, hasilnya bener2 profit. Kami modifikasi, hasilnya bahkan lebih cantik lagi. Begitu juga dengan sistem "Aberration" yg pakai deviasi, alias Bollinger band, yg juga mengadopsi filosofi long term trend following, jelas2 profitable.
Gak ada prediction, gak ada hal2 canggih, hanya averages, deviasi, true range, etc..
Profitabilitas sistem2 di horizon long term itu sangat ditentukan oleh lengkapnya suatu sistem. Gak cuman entry - exit. Karena kalau mengandalkan entry-exit polos, sistem yg entry di 55 day b/o, exit di 20 day b/o, pasti bakalan losing. Apalagi yg entry di b/o bands, exit di b/o bands lainnya. Ugly banget deh..
Tapi ternyata, karena adanya komponen risk management (position sizing, pre-determined SL), trailing exit, dan multiple entry utk memanfaatkan trending session semaksimal mungkin, akhirnya suatu sistem yg sangat simple malah menjadi profitable.

Itu cerita saya di lembaran2 yg lalu. Namanya juga org lagi belajar selalu kena sindrom kaget, baru tau kayak gitu saya pikir: "that was the ONLY answer"..
Tapi ternyata perjalanan belum selesai. Sistem long term kayak gitu nggak feasible utk dijalankan kalau hanya mentradingkan capital $5k, apalagi cuman $400. Kecuali kalau trading itu hanya hobby. Baru layak dijalankan secara komersial kalo ada capital 100k ke atas, itu pun dengan efisiensi di komponen2 fixed cost. "Gak nendang" banget deh...

So, akhirnya, berangkat dari hasil belajar sebelumnya, lanjut bertapa lagi, riset lagi.
Kerangkanya masih sama: systematic trading, yg ujung2nya bisa di-mekanisasi.
Hasilnya: Short term trading si doable. Mission very possible.
Kuncinya:
- FX market punya pola volatilitas intraday yg sangat siklik. Hal ini termanifestasi pada batasan penggunaan suatu sistem tertentu pada jam2 tertentu saja. Akhirnya bakalan ada saat2 di mana kita menggunakan prinsip mean-reversion, dan ada saat2 di mana kita bisa menggunakan prinsip momentum.
- Profil Risk-to-Reward ratio per single trade nya ternyata inverted.
- Penentuan SL dan TP mengacu pada gerakan rata2 historical per satuan waktu tertentu, dilakukan dgn menarik value dari ATR (average true range), sehingga didapat suatu sistem yg sangat robust: menggunakan parameter yg sama utk semua currency pairs, dan profit di semua pairs. Robust.

Jadi, teman2 seperjuangan ku di sini, let me tell you here: jangan menyerah. Jangan berkecil hati.
Kalau gak percaya my story, berikut saya sertakan kutipan tulisan dari blog nya covel, komentar ed seykota dan covel tentang short term trading:
http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/000314.html
Ed Seykota was recently asked in his forum:

"I am new to trend following and wish to ask you what your favorite chart is for determining a given market's trend? Daily, Weekly, Yearly, Hourly?"

Ed responded:

"Hmmm...your list seems to lack scaling options for minute, second, and millisecond. If you want to go for the really high frequency stuff, you might try trading visible light, in the range of one cycle per 10-15 seconds. Trading gamma rays, at around one cycle per 10-20 seconds, requires a lot of expensive instrumentation, whereas you can trade visible light "by eye." I don't know of even one short-term trader, however, who claims to show a profit at these frequencies. In general, higher frequency trading succumbs to declining profit potential against non-declining transaction costs. You might consider trading a chart with a long enough time scale that transaction costs are a minor factor - something like a daily price chart, going back a year or two."
I agree with Ed's pithy wisdom, but he is not saying short term is impossible.

There do exist shorter term systematic traders who have done quite well (Toby Crabel, Jim Simons). They would agree with Ed that their style is hard. The shorter you go the more you need great execution, fantastic data and multiple systems. To be a great shorter term mechanical trader is a different animal than trend following, but it is a style that a select few have mastered.

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Short term vs long term systems

Short term systems usually produce these outcomes:
Many small profits, usually consecutively. They may come as frequent as 70-80%.
A big losing trade will come occasionally, causing drawdowns. This is seldom, but alwas come and never can be predicted. Its just the nature of the system. This may as frequent as 20-30%.
Equity curve profile looks like this red lines in the picture at the bottom of this post.
Meanwhile, long term trendfollowing systems have the opposite profile:
Small losing trades usually happen regularly and consecutively. They are 60-70% of the total statistics. These are when cuting small losses.
Big profit comes when the system ride trends. They are seldom. And hardly are consecutively. We can not predict when it'll come, but it is promised by the nature of the market.

The equity curve profile looks like the blue lines in the picture below.
Short term systems includes the bolltrade, the multilot systems, the short term breakout systems, etc.
Long term systems includes the turtles, the aberration, and several others.
They all pretty consistent with those profile I mentioned.

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Beberapa mitos ttg FX

Mitos bhw anda trading di interbank market. Kenyataan anda trading dalam suatu house, shg mrk tidak pernah pakai tight SL. Hanya cat-SL, sdangkan exitnya pakai mental-SL. (tolong koreksi kalo gue salah soal yg ini)

Mitos bahwa FX = low cost. Kenyataan: biaya spread yg 2-3pips itu sangat tinggi. Bandingkan dengan trading futures atau stock, comission di bawah 1 pips per r/t. Apalagi dibanding ER2 yg volatilitasnya bisa 20 tick sehari.

Mitos soal Leverage yg dijadikan daya tarik. Kenyataan: ini adalah senjata paling ampuh bagi house utk marketing, sekaligus menjadi penyebab utama kehancuran rekening customer (para trader pemula).

Mitos bhwa di FX anda bisa trading selama 24 Hour. Kenyataan: para professional trader seperti para pembicara di video trsebut hanya trading di jam-jam tertentu saja. Mrk lihat calendar utk lihat kapan ada action di market. Bahkan menurut mereka: trader yg mencoba trading intraday dan mentradingkan semua signal buy/sell dari sistem nya, pasti trader2 itu rekeningnya masih losing. itu menurut pengamatan mereka melihat trader2 lainnya. Ini menarik sekali.

Mitos soal fasilitas Free software, free data utk FX. Kenyataannya: free sfotware dan data itu gak baik. Ini menurut mereka. Mrk pakai tradestation. Mungkin bener juga kata mereka, tapi mungkin juga salah ya. I don;t know. Coba temen2 ada yg bisa kasi tanggapan ?

Mitos soal indikator2: sell di overbought, buy di oversold. Buy/sell di corssover dll. Kenyataannya: teknik trading seperti itu sengaja disebarkan oleh pihak2 yg berkepentingan. Wah wah.

Mitos bhwa cukup demo 1-2 bulan, lalu go Live. Kenyataan: menurut mereka: "don't expect to go live within 6 months, 1 year or even 18 months".
Mitos bhwa FX & Futures lebih rumit drpada stock. Kenyataan: menurut mrk: stock lebih repot.

Hal menarik lain: Soal teknik trading.

Mereka pakai satu setting (mrk pakai 1 indikator) di 3 timeframe.
Mereka jelas2 bilang penggunaan banyak indikator di satu timeframe itu salah satu ciri2 trader yg masih merugi. Mereka justru lakukan yg sebaliknya sebaliknya: mrk pakai satu indikator atau tanpa indikator, di multiple timeframe. Utk intraday mrk pakai chart 15 min, 10min, 3 min. Utk posisi swing yg lebih panjang mrk pakai tf yg lebih panjang, tp tetap multiple timeframe.

Yah begitu lah point2 yg gue dapat tangkap dari video tersebut. Mungkin gue ada salah tangkap atau ada yg terlewat. Utk lebih jelasnya, silakan liat ndiri deh yak..
Ini gue posting lagi link nya, siapa tau ada yg kelewat postingnya Eugene:

http://www.netpicks.com/UTM/MythBustingE1.html
http://www.netpicks.com/UTM/MythBustingE2.htm

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Reasons trading is like sex

Some like it long, some like it short.

You can study the market as much as you like, but it all comes down to luck.
Those who talk about it the most, have the least experience.
One simple mistake could lead to 18 unprofitable years.
Some prefer to sit back and watch it grow.
Terms include swing trading, asset turnover, naked call, after hours, insider trading, silent partner, blind entries, 30-day wash rule, straddle, triangles, descending tops, ascending bottoms, pump and dump, partial surrender, stop order, position limit, voluntary liquidation, and explicit interest.
Low confidence can keep you out of the market.
Everyone tends to focus on performance.
Some do it alone, others do it with a group, and some hire professionals.
and the number one reason....Some positions are better than others and the best position is always up for debate!
And remember, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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Style trading Turtle BREAKOUT

Ini adalah hasil trading Curtis "turtle" Faith di awal2 wkt dilatih Richard Dennis.


Terlihat teknik break loss mlulu di awal2 sampai 17x, tapi sekalinya menang semua loss ketutup & profit byk. Itulah ciri2 teknik BREAK. Makanya biarpun gampang tp org sulit sekali menerapkan ini. Hal ini membutuhkan DISIPLIN & KONSISENSI yg sempurna. Kedua hal ini bisa dicapai dg LATIHAN berulang-ulang sehingga confidence kita muncul dari dalam hati kita sendiri, bukan krn kata org.

Ternyata Curtis Faith lbh cocok dijuluki org "beriman" alias "faith", biarpun faith sebesar biji sesawi akan bisa memindahkan gunung loss.

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The Secret of Timing

Once you’ve identified a trading opportunity, the next step is to decide EXACTLY when to buy - and this is where many traders go wrong.Here we explain how to incorporate better market timing into your FOREX strategy - so that you can make bigger profits.

Most traders time their entry levels incorrectly, so here’s the right way to do it:

Using Support and Resistance Correctly
A basic wisdom of market timing is “buy low, sell high” - well, the reality is, if you try this in FOREX trading, you’ll end up losing money. First, let’s define what support and resistance means

A support level is a historical price that traders come in, and buy to “support the market” – and the more times it’s tested, the more valid the support will be.

Conversely, a resistance level is a level on the charts that “resisted prices from moving higher”- again the more times it’s tested, the more significant it becomes.

Why Buy Low and Sell High doesn’t Work
“Buy low, sell high” is accepted wisdom by the majority of traders - but this logic is fundamentally flawed - use it in FOREX trading, and you’re asking for trouble. Why? - If you wait for a pullback, you’re going to miss some of the biggest moves.

Think about it - what if a currency starts to trend and doesn’t pullback? (How often have you seen this?) If you’re waiting for a pullback that never comes, you’ll never get in on the trade – and you’ll miss a major opportunity.

You Need to Feel Uncomfortable
When Trading in the FOREX market, you should usually feel uncomfortable (and that’s why most traders don’t make these trades) - as no one likes to buy or sell after the market has started trending - but doing this will make you money.

The fact is, the more comfortable you feel when entering a trade at support, the less likely the trade will be a big winner.

During any given year, most of the big moves in currencies, take place from new MARKET HIGHS with NO pullback.

If you base your FOREX Trading strategy around waiting for a warm comfy entry, at key support, you’re going to miss the biggest and most profitable trades – so step away from the losing majority of traders.

Your FOREX trading strategy should give you a different mindset - most traders “buy low and sell high” - so you should “buy high and sell higher” – i.e. you should be doing the opposite of what the crowd are doing.

Don’t worry - most traders lose money, and their FOREX Trading strategy is based on the flawed logic we have just discussed - so not doing what they do makes total sense. Therefore, look for breakouts through support and resistance - and sell and buy respectively.

Its Tough Mentally - But it Makes Money!
Sure, it’s hard to do - the majority don’t agree with you - and no one likes to go against the majority. However, it’s the right thing to do, to make your FOREX trading successful. Think about what we’ve just said, and you’ll see it makes logical sense.

Has this Happened to You?
How many times do traders buy into support, and the market breaks support, stops them out and continues to decline. On the other hand, another common scenario is, price never get to support - it simply goes higher - and the trader misses the chance to get in on the trend.

This type of trading is tough mentally - that’s why 90% of traders don’t do it - they want to be comfortable - well being comfortable is great, but you’ll lose money.

Breakouts work, and if you use them in your FOREX Trading strategy, you won’t be comfortable on entry - but you’ll make money - and that will more than compensate.

The way to succeed in FOREX trading is to do what the losing majority don’t do - then you can join the elite 10% of traders who make the big profits - try it and see!

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The Secret to Making Profits from the Big Moves

In FOREX trading, it’s a fact that many traders simply can’t let their profits run - they enter trades correctly, but only ever, bank marginal profits. “Let your profits run” is accepted market wisdom - but how do you do it in practice? How do you maximize your profits?

Many FOREX traders get in on a good opportunity, and take a marginal profit, or are stopped out - they then watch in frustration as the trade piles up $20,000, $50,000, or more - and they’re not in the market! This happens all the time, so lets look at how you can let your FOREX trading profits run.

Statistical Significance
When FOREX Trading, letting your profits run, is the only way you can cover the cost of your losses - and most traders don’t understand its significance.

What constitutes a large winner in FOREX trading? - You need to make ten times or more than your average losing trade. If you lose $500, you need to make $5000 - but how do you do this?

The only way to make money in FOREX trading is by letting your profits run - and this isn’t as easy as it sounds. You need to let your profits run with a NO profit objective. Of course, this is hard to do - and most traders don’t do it (and that’s why they lose).

There are two reasons why traders lose money in the FOREX market – one’s mental, and the other’s physical:
A Mental Dilemma
Why is it so hard to hold on to winning trades?
The emotion of fear comes into play here - the bigger the profit becomes, the more a trader wants to take it - before they lose it.

Watching a trade you are making money in, dip back is hard. Most traders simply say, any profit is better than no profit – so they take a small profit and feel happy. However, the profit isn’t big enough - and their losing trades wipe them out sooner or later.

Traders want to snatch ANY profit - in case it gets away - but this is totally wrong.

Physical Reality
The large trends simply do not come around that often.
By using an open profit objective, and a lagging exit, most of your FOREX trades will lose you money.

Trying to avoid losses by snatching profits, or running stops to close, will see you lose money in the long run, when you trade the FOREX markets.

The huge trends don’t come that often - so you need to catch them.

If you want to catch the big winners, then you need to see the majority of the trades that you enter, that are in profit, reverse - and stop you out at a loss

Because FOREX Trading offers traders fantastic long-term trends - that go on for months, or years - if you can get in on them, and hold them - you’re all set for huge profits.

Use Lagging Exits
A lagging exit is where you wait for confirmation of a trend change - before banking your profit.

Many traders try to anticipate a trend change - only to take profits early, and miss the major move - don’t fall into this trap!

Here are two exit strategies that will keep you in the trend for as long possible:

1. To exit a trade, use the 40-day moving average. If positioned long in an up trend - wait for a close below this level - and exit the position. In a downtrend, exit a short on a close above this level.

2. If long from a new 20 day high - hold position until prices make a new 10-day price low. If short from a 4 week low - hold short until prices make a new 10-day high.

These two lagging exit strategies will ensure that you are in the big trending moves, for as long as possible. In FOREX Trading, if you want to run the big winners, then you must use a lagging exit. If you do this, then you will stay with the big moves - and pile up huge gains – rather that get stopped out early.

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Search for the Holy Grail

Some things in trading just aren't possible. Maybe a car analogy will help.Imagine for a moment you are designing a car and it has to have the following characteristics:

0-60 miles per hour in 6 seconds
Top speed of 180 miles per hour
So it's a fast sports car at the high end of performance. Now you have a couple more required characteristics:

Carry 7 passengers in comfort
Do 40 miles on a gallon of gas
If you know anything about physics and conservation of energy you will quickly realize that these 4 characteristics would be virtually impossible to embody into one vehicle (with current technology). You have 2 main choices - compromise on some of the requirements, or design 3 cars (a sports car, an SUV, and a compact).

What has this got to do with trading? Well a lot of the time people are trying to design the 'Holy Grail' system that has the following characteristics:

High win%
High average winner size to loser size
High frequency
High return
Low drawdown
Low slippage
Low implementation costs
Just like the car design where some of the characteristics have an inverse relationship (e.g. top speed to fuel economy) trading systems exhibit similar behavior. High win%, for example, is usually inversely proportional to both trade frequency and average size of winners compared to losers.

When you are attempting to design a trading system it is important that you make sure you don't have an 'impossible specification' for what you want to achieve because you don't clearly understand the relationships between the various system components and characteristics. Otherwise the only thing you'll achieve is frustration.

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The Key to Long-Term Success

Successful people have been studied in depth for more than 100 years. They have been interviewed extensively to determine what it is they do and how they think that enables them to accomplish so much more than the average person.

In this Newsletter, you learn the most important single factor of long-term success and how you can build it into your personality and your attitude. You learn how to virtually guarantee yourself a great future.

The Harvard Discovery on Success
In 1970, sociologist Dr. Edward Banfield of Harvard University wrote a book entitled The Unheavenly City. He described one of the most profound studies on success and priority setting ever conducted.

Banfield’s goal was to find out how and why some people became financially independent during the course of their working lifetimes. He started off convinced that the answer to this question would be found in factors such as family background, education, intelligence, influential contacts, or some other concrete factor. What he finally discovered was that the major reason for success in life was a particular attitude of mind.

Develop Long Time Perspective
Banfield called this attitude “long time perspective.” He said that men and women who were the most successful in life and the most likely to move up economically were those who took the future into consideration with every decision they made in the present. He found that the longer the period of time a person took into consideration while planning and acting, the more likely it was that he would achieve greatly during his career.

For example, one of the reasons your family doctor is among the most respected people in America is because he or she has invested many years of hard work and study to finally earn the right to practice medicine. After university courses, internship, residency and practical training, a doctor may be more than 30 years old before he or she is capable of earning a good living. But from that point onward, these men and women are some of the most respected and most successful professional people in any society. They had long time perspectives.

Measure the Potential Future Impact
The key to success in setting priorities is having a long time perspective. You can tell how important something is today by measuring its potential future impact on your life.

For example, if you come home from work at night and choose to play with your children or spend time with your spouse, rather than watch TV or read the paper, you have a long time perspective. You know that investing time in the health and happiness of your children and your spouse is a very valuable, high-priority use of time. The potential future impact of quality time with your family is very high.

If you take additional courses in the evening to upgrade your skills and make yourself more valuable to your employer, you’re acting with a long time perspective. Learning something practical and useful can have a long-term effect on your career.

Practice Delayed Gratification
Economists say that the inability to delay gratification-that is, the natural tendency of individuals to spend everything they earn plus a little bit more, and the mind-set of doing what is fun, easy and enjoyable-is the primary cause of economic and personal failure in life. On the other hand, disciplining yourself to do what you know is right and important, although difficult, is the highroad to pride, self-esteem and personal satisfaction.

The long term comes soon enough, and every sacrifice that you make today will be rewarded with compound interest in the great future that lies ahead for you.

Action Exercises
Here are three steps you can take immediately to put these ideas into action.

First, think long-term. Sit down today and write out a description of your ideal life ten and twenty years into the future. This automatically develops longer-time perspective.

Second, look at everything you do in terms of its long-term potential impact on your life. Do more things that have greater long-term value to you.

Third, develop the habit of delaying gratification in small things, small expenditures, small pleasures, so that you can enjoy greater rewards and greater satisfaction in the future.

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Only Indiana Jones was successful in searching for the Holy Grail!

Don't fall into the trap of searching for the Holy Grail of technical analysis? There are traders who try one indicator for awhile and when success doesn't come, they move on to another hoping to find profits hidden within the indicator itself? At one time I did this too!

The truth be told, several indicators work well, if you really know how to read them. The lack of success in trading often comes not from not having the "right" indicator, but from not learning to read it properly. A logical examination will tell you this is true. Almost all indicators are built using the open, close, high, low and volume, or some of these. There are only so many relevant combinations of this data. So while a pursuit in an indicator that will provide you with magical insight that no one else has, sounds adventures, it is futile.

The key is not just finding the right technical tools. There are several useful charting tools available. The key is learning which ones to use together and to use them properly! This is the "art of trading". While it is an art, it is not hard to learn, but honestly it does take time. If it didn't we would all be millionaires!

The problem many face today, is that we live in an instant gratification society. So many habitually, if they don't get what they are looking for immediately, look somewhere else, when in some cases, like trading, all you have to do is exert yourself a little to really understand how an indicator works and you can find the success you were looking for. This is only one of the pit falls new traders suffer from.

It reminds me of when I was a little child and my father would take me fishing. I was so impatient. I would throw my line in and if a fish didn't bite within a minute, I would reel it in and cast it out somewhere else. My Dad, would smile, while he patiently waited with his line in place. At the end of the afternoon, as usual, we would go home. I would be empty handed and he would be carrying 3 or 4 fish.

So what is needed is knowledge and a systematic way of applying that knowledge so your success or failure can be measured.. A streamed lined way to gain a systematic application of knowledge is the "franchise method" like in real business.

The path of oneness.
Don't make the same mistake many new traders make!

Don't try to be one of those who attempt to learn on their own and usually end up losing their capital in the process. This risk is very real as my experience will show.

It happened to me, don't let it happen to you: When I first began to trade, I spent a short time educating myself and thought I was ready to go. I started trading and started making some money. The excitement and my confidence built up! Within a short time however, my losses started to catch up with my winnings. I would enter a trade, get stopped out and then to my dismay, I would see the price start climbing the next day. Frustration started to set in.

It wasn't long before I started to panic which caused me on occasion to widen my stop losses on losing positions in hopes they would reverse themselves, which only resulted in larger losses. Within a year I had single handedly destroyed almost half of my trading account.

Words alone could not tell the frustration I felt, as I knew of other traders who were raking in profits month in and month out, so I knew it could be done. That's when I decided to get serious. I stopped trading, at least with real money. I took a few short courses and stared reading more books and even wasted time in search of the Holy Grail. Over the next couple of years and several reams of paper later I paper traded and recorded everything I did. Every win and every loss documented to the last small detail of the trade, looking for the common thread of success.

In my case the saying was true, "I couldn't see the trees, because the forest was in the way", but when I had finally put enough pieces of the puzzle together, I began to understand what I was looking at. When I finally found out what worked, I was amazed at how simple it was. It was like the combination to a safe. Just a little error made the difference between success and failure. Success had come, but it was a long, hard road and an expensive one.

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Discretionary vs System Trading

I believe that one can apply good trading principles without having an explicit system and be successful as a discretionary trader. Some of the best traders I know are discretionary traders, this is especially true of day traders or swing traders. Discretionary trading is more fun and can be more gratifying if you have the right personality.

Many people believe that only a human brain can make money and that discretionary trading is vastly superior to systematic trading. Others believe that discretionary trading is inferior and that only system trading works. I hold none of these dogmatic beliefs.

I believe that all successful traders are systematic but that some have internalized the rules they use so that they are able to perform without having to explicitly refer to rules. They may not even be aware of all the rules they use.

Good system traders would learn quite a bit from reading the blogs of discretionary traders. There are many ideas contained in these blogs that can be used to build systems which make money.

I also believe that discretionary traders can learn a lot by building systems and testing out trading ideas in the context of those systems for scientific validation. I have found that many ideas I held as truth did not stand up to the rigor of testing. I’m sure that many discretionary traders find the same when they test their ideas using simulation software.

When I have sat down with discretionary traders, I often find that after a few hours of questions and answers I can get them to describe to me concepts which they did not believe could be tested in such a way that I was able to create a specific trading algorithm that embodied those concepts. This process has always been instructive for both of us.

So I encourage all of you who believe that only your religion is the one true faith to try to learn from the dark side. I am sure that you will find, as I have, that both approaches have their merit and can be the basis of a successful trading career, and that success using either approach comes down to the same core principles: trade with an edge, manage risk, be consistent, keep it simple.

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Triple screen trading system

The factor of five in choosing timeframes. Decide which timeframe you want to trade and call that intermediate timeframe. The long-term timeframe will be 5 times longer and the short-term timeframe 5 times shorter than the intermediate timeframe.

First Screen (long-term timeframe) – Market Tide
The first screen uses trend-following indicators to identify a long-term trend. The original system uses the slope of the MACD-Histogram to identify the market tide. The slope is defined as the relationship between the two latest bars. The upturns and downturns that occur above or below the centerline give better signals than the opposite. You could also use a simple 13 candles exponential moving average to define where the trend is going. The principle is the same: first screen enables you to decide if you will go long or short on second screen.

Second Screen (intermediate timeframe) – Market Wave
The second screen applies oscillators to the intermediate timeframe chart in order to identify deviations from the first screen chart. When the long-term timeframe trend is up, intermediate timeframe declines point to buying opportunities. When the long-term timeframe trend is down, intermediate timeframe rallies point to shorting opportunities. Force index and Elder-ray are good oscillators to use with Triple Screen, but Stochastic and Williams%R also perform well.

Third Screen (short-term timframe) – Intraday Breakout
The third screen uses intraday price action to pinpoint entry points. The third screen does not require a chart or an indicator. It uses a trailing buy-stop technique when the long-term timeframe trend is up while the intermediate timeframe is down to catch upside breakouts. On the other side, it uses a trailing sell-stop technique when the long-term timeframe trend is down while the intermediate timeframe is up to catch downside breakouts.

So technically, when the conditions you are looking for are met on the First and on the Second Screen, place a buy (or a sell order) on the third screen one tick above (or below) the high (or the low) of the last closed candle on the INTERMEDIATE TERM TIMEFRAME.

Keep moving your buy-stop (or sell-stop) for each subsequent candle until stopped in or until the trend on the long-term timeframe reverses therefore cancelling its initial signal.

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Best Forex trading tips

We cannot say that it is very easy to make money in forex trading, but it isn’t really difficult also. It is the smart work that matters than hard work in trading currency market. Following are the essential tips on how to avoid usual pitfalls and start making more money in forex trading.

Trade in pairs not in currency- Like any relationship; you need to know both the sides. Success or failure in forex currency trading relies upon being right about both foreign currencies and how they contact each other, not just one.

Understand the basics - When you start to trading currency online, it is indispensable that you understand the basics of this particular market if you desire to make the most of your investments. The chief forex influencer is worldwide news and other related events. Most newcomers respond aggressively to news like this and close their positions and next miss out on some of the most excellent trading chances by waiting until the market goes down. The latent in the forex market is in the instability, not when it is clam.

Self-government - If in case you are fresher to forex, you would either choose to trade your own money or to have a forex broker trading it for you. It is good but your risk of losing augments tremendously if you either of these two things: you also need to interfere with what your forex broker do on your behalf; seek counsel from too many other sources - many input would only result in multiple losses. Take a location, ride with it and then analyze the result - by yourself, for yourself.

Small margins – Small margin trading is one of the leading benefits in trading forex as it permits you to do trading in the amounts far bigger than the total of your deposits. However, it could as well be risky to beginner traders as it could demand to the voracity factor, which wipes out many forex traders. The best guideline is to boost your leverage in line with your skill and success.

Trade during Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and other hedge funds mobs a wide benefit over small retail traders in off-peak hours (usually between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they could hedge their place and move them around when there is far tiny trade volume is going through (that simply means that their risk is smaller).

Trade on the news - Most of the actually big trade market moves arise around news time. Trading volume is lofty and the moves are very important; this means there is no superior time to trade than when news is actually released. This is when the big players alter their places and prices alter resulting in a somber currency flow.

Confidence - Confidence comes from winning forex trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's extremely hard to gain it back; the ploy is not to go off half-cocked; study the forex business before you start to trade. Keep in mind, knowledge is power.

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Filosofi Pasar Modal

Beberapa waktu lalu saya mendapat surat elektronik (e-mail) dari seorang konsultan keuangan (lihat artikel di bawah). Menarik, karena e-mail tersebut datang dari seorang konsultan keuangan yang beraktivitas di pasar modal.
Judul e-mail tersebut adalah Philisophy of the Stock Market atau Filisofi Pasar Saham. Isinya begini: Sekali peristiwa di sebuah desa, muncullah seorang tuan yang mengumumkan kepada para penghuni desa bahwa dia akan membeli monyet dengan harga 10 Ringgit per ekor. Para penghuni desa yang melihat banyak monyet di hutan bersegera keluar dan mulai menangkap monyet-monyet itu.

Tuan itu membeli beribu-ribu ekor monyet dengan harga 10 Ringgit. Ketika persediaan monyet mulai menurun dan para penghuni desa mulai menghentikan usaha mereka, dia mengumumkan bahwa sekarang dia akan membeli monyet pada harga 20 Ringgit per ekor. Para penghuni desa tergerak, dan mereka mulai menangkap monyet lagi. Persediaan monyet pun semakin menurun dan mereka kembali ke kebun.

Harga penawaran kemudian dinaikkan menjadi 25 Ringgit per ekor. Karena persediaan monyet sedemikian langka maka diperlukan upaya lebih keras dari sebelumnya. Tak berapa lama Tuan itu mengumumkan bahwa dia akan membeli monyet pada harga 50 Ringgit per ekor. Tapi berhubung dia harus ke kota untuk urusan bisnis, maka asistennya yang diserahi tugas untuk kepentingannya.

Ketika Tuan itu sudah pergi, asisten itu berkata kepada para penghuni desa: "Lihatlah monyet-monyet di kandang besar yang telah dikumpulkan oleh Tuan. Saya akan menjual monyet-monyet kepada Anda seharga 35 Ringgit per ekor, dan ketika Tuan kembali, Anda bisa menjual kepadanya dengan harga 50 Ringgit per ekor."

Terjadilah antre panjang para penghuni desa untuk membeli monyet dengan seluruh tabungan yang ada pada mereka. Ternyata setelah itu, baik asisten maupun Tuan lenyap tak berbekas, sementara monyet-monyet ada di mana-mana!


Persepsi Jadi Realitas
Persepsi menjadi kenyataan (perception becomes reality) adalah ungkapan paling tepat untuk menggambarkan kisah tersebut di atas. Kisah di atas bisa mewakili apa yang sering terjadi di pasar modal.

Belum lama ini pasar modal kita dihebohkan dengan kasus gagal bayar antarpialang atas transaksi suatu saham dengan nilai lebih dari Rp 200 miliar. Dalam hitungan bulan, harga saham ini bergerak spektakuler, dari di bawah Rp100 menjadi di atas Rp 4.000. Nilai transaksi yang terjadi setiap hari pun tidak tanggung-tanggung, pernah mencapai di atas Rp 1 triliun.

Para pelaku pasar pun berdecak dan senang. Tapi tidak sedikit juga yang cemas. Mereka senang, karena dengan pergerakan harga yang naik luar biasa mereka akan memperoleh keuntungan yang substansial. Namun, mereka cemas kalau-kalau harga keburu turun sementara mereka belum sempat menjual kembali apa yang telah mereka beli pada harga tinggi. Cemas karena mereka tahu bahwa penurunan harga, cepat atau lambat tetap akan terjadi, namun kapan persisnya, semuanya tak bisa memperkirakan.

Apa yang dicemaskan kemudian benar-benar terjadi. Harga saham menukik tajam sampai suspensi oleh Otoritas Bursa pada level sekitar Rp 2.000. Ada yang memang meraup untung karena sempat menjual di atas harga beli, tapi ada juga yang rugi besar, karena telanjur membeli pada harga tinggi dan belum sempat menjual kembali.

"Penggorengan" Saham
Ada istilah yang populer di pasar modal kita yakni saham gorengan, dengan pelakunya disebut penggoreng saham atau tukang goreng saham. Menarik, bukan?

Ternyata bukan hanya pisang yang bisa digoreng, saham pun bisa. Artinya saham bisa diberi "bumbu" dengan berbagai informasi menarik dan menjanjikan untuk menciptakan persepsi bahwa saham itu memang bagus dan banyak peminat.

Lalu harga semakin naik seiring naiknya permintaan dan turunnya persediaan. Setelah harga naik tinggi, penggoreng saham mulai menjual sahamnya pada harga tinggi tersebut. Akibatnya, pasar mulai dibanjiri saham tersebut dan harga mulai turun drastis. Dalam hal ini penggoreng saham tidak bekerja sendiri, melainkan memiliki kaki-tangan yang membantunya. Mirip cerita monyet di atas, bukan?

Goreng -menggoreng saham sering terjadi di pasar modal kita. Itulah yang sering memberi kesan bahwa pasar modal merupakan tempat berjudi. Sayangnya, istilah 'main saham' yang telanjur lumrah ini memberi konotasi negatif atas suatu aktivitas investasi keuangan.

Lalu, apakah memang demikian cermin pasar saham yang seharusnya? Jawabannya, tentu saja tidak. Contoh di atas menggambarkan penyimpangan pada aktivitas pasar modal yang bermartabat.

Hakikatnya, investasi pada saham suatu perusahaan memungkinkan sang investor memiliki perusahaan tersebut dan berpartisipasi dalam pertumbuhan perusahaan yang dipilihnya itu. Investor saham mendapat bagian keuntungan dari perusahaan tersebut dalam bentuk dividen. Investor juga mendapat keuntungan dalam bentuk capital gain, yaitu apresiasi harga pasar terhadap harga beli. Kenaikan harga saham ditopang oleh faktor fundamental antara lain kinerja keuangan perusahaan yang solid dan pertumbuhan perusahaan yang menjanjikan, bukan karena "digoreng" oleh tukang goreng!

Mestinya inilah filosofi investasi di pasar saham, yaitu partisipasi sebagai pemegang saham lalu mendapatkan keuntungan bersih perusahaan dalam bentuk dividen dan apresiasi harga saham dalam bentuk capital gain, dan sebaliknya, turut menanggung kerugian perusahaan (tidak ada dividen) dan capital loss akibat penurunan harga saham.

Pasar Bermartabat
Nafsu mengambil untung secara tidak wajar dengan mencelakakan orang lain menandakan tiadanya etika dalam praktik bisnis. Bercermin dari cerita monyet di atas, siapakah yang menikmati keuntungan, sebaliknya, siapakah yang mengalami nasib naas? Kisah monyet tersebut di atas jelas menggambarkan bahwa si Tuan dengan kaki-tangannya si asisten mendapat untung besar, sementara para penghuni desa mendapat rugi besar.

Sahabat saya sering heran kalau saya meminta mereka untuk berhati-hati berinvestasi di pasar saham. Menurut mereka, sebagai praktisi yang turut mempromosikan dan memajukan pasar modal di Indonesia, saya mestinya mendorong mereka menyisihkan sebagian tabungan untuk investasi di pasar saham.

Betul, memajukan pasar modal adalah sebuah kewajiban profesional yang melekat, tapi menjauhkan pasar modal dari praktik penggorengan saham dalam rangka penciptaan harga semu, adalah sebuah kepedulian yang tak bisa saya hindari.

Alangkah bermartabatnya kalau pasar saham bebas dari praktik manipulasi harga lewat penciptaan harga semu. Betapa mulianya jika pasar saham bersih dan berwibawa, dan jauh dari stigma "tempat berjudi". Hanya dengan demikian masyarakat pemodal dapat beraktivitas dengan aman dan nyaman. Semoga!

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The Last Samurai

Waktu nonton The Last Samurai di tipi eh langsung ingat forex trading :D :-) ceritanya gini:seorang bekas kapten dari Ameriki yg pernah menaklukkan suku Indian dikirim ke Jepang untuk menumpas para pemberontak , atas permintaan kaisar Jepang.

Pengalaman Si kapten itulah alasan kenapa dia dipilih. Di Jepang kapten itu melatih para warga sipil(petani pedagang dll) yg belum familiar dengan senjata baru(senapan).
ketika bertanya lebih jauh siapa lawanya. si kapten terkejut karena ternyata lawanya hanyalah samurai berpedang,. para samurai dulu pernah memaki senapan tapi kemudian meninggalkannya karena dianggap senapan bukan jalan kehormatan. mereka merasa lebih terhormat dengan pedang di sisi mereka.
senapan lawan pedang !! ini konyolll.

Pelatihan pun dimulai . tetapi ketika baru beberapa minggu/hari? pelatihan diadakan dan para prajurit dadakan ini belum mahir benar sudah keluar perintah untuk segera menyerang para pemberontak.kapten menolaknya mentah2. tetapi perintah tetaplah perintah.segeralah pasukan disiapkan. dengan senjata lengkap dan canggih. senapan lawan pedang sungguh tak imbang.

para prajurit dadakan bersiap dengan senapan ditangan , menunggu aba2 sang kapten. Ketika para samurai berkuda muncul dg kostum menakutkan , terlihatlah ketakutan diwajah para tentara si kapten(padahal mereka bawa senapan) ,lalu ada beberapa tentara yg saking takutnya menembak tanpa aba2. diikuti teman2nya. padahal aba2 belum diberikan oleh kapten. mereka terus menembak seperti tidak mendengarkan lagi aba2. senapan pada jaman itu sekali isi tembak lalu isi lagi.

mulailah formasi kocar kacir. akhirnya pedang lawan senapan berakhir dengan kalahnya senapan.sang kapten akhirnya ditangkap oleh para samurai. dan dibiarkan hidup karena dianggap spesial :D

di tempat para samurai sang kapten nggak habis pikir kenapa dia dibiarkan hidup. disini dia mengamati para samurai yg mendedikasikan dirinya untuk pekerjaanya. mulai dari bangun pagi sampai malam. 8-)
singkat cerita. dia belajar main pedang. dan selalu dikalahkan oleh samurai disitu.
trus sesuai pengarahan dia harus "KOSONGKAN PIKIRAN konsentrasi fokus, JANGAN PIKIRKAN BAHWA KAMU DITONTON " namanya juga film. si kapten kemudian berhasil men DRAW samurai itu. dg hasil imbang.

ternyata para samurai memberontak karena kesetiaan mereka pada tuan nya (semangat bushido).mereka berpikir kaisar dikuasai oleh orang2 disekitarnya.dan kaisar tak berdaya melawan, semua keputusanya adalah bisikan oran2 disekitar kaisar.
setelah dibebaskan oleh para samurai dan kembali ke kota ,kapten langsung disuguhi senjata baru. meriam howitzer dan senapan mesin anti macet. dg ratusan peluru permenit.Trus gimana kisah selanjutnya??tonton aja sendiri :-) nggak tahu habis ketiduran sih hehehhe payah :-D

tapi intinya menurutku. ibarat kita memakai alat bantu indicator canggih(senapan) dan indi simple(pedang). hasilnya mungkin bisa bagusan indi simple jika kita menguasainya luar dalam master pedang/indi.

mental juga menentukan pengambilan keputusan, seringkali kita melakukan keputusan terlalu awal karena gugup market yg bergerak cepat. kosongkan pikiran, konsentrasi, jangan pikirkan penonton/dalam hal trading LOSS, kenapa? karena loss sudah diatur risk manajemen (sekitar 2%). disinilah kelihatan fungsinya risk manajemen mengurangi ketakutan dan beban. berpengaruh pada reaksi, analisa dan keputusan

Kehormatan, nah kalau yang terakhir ini apakah anda berpikir trading itu judi? kalau iya berarti tidak ada kehormatan/kebanggaan karena merasa trading bukanlah hal benar menurut norma dan agama. ini sangat fatal. kita lihat samurai dalam cerita itu memiliki semangat setia pada tuannya. dan itu dianggap sebagai kebenaran. dan itulah dasar yg penting. Apakah anda melakukan pekerjaan anda di dunia nyata dg kebanggaan? jawabannya pasti iya to? kalau nggak gimana? pasti nggak konsen too. :-( . kalau trading dianggap judi mending nggak usah trading sekalian, jika diteruskan ini hanya akan membuat anda semakin yakin kalau trading judi karena loss mulu :D

"Barangsiapa mengenal dirinya sendiri dan mengenal musuhnya, ia senantiasa menang dengan mudah. Barangsiapa mengenal langit dan bumi, ia menang atas segalanya - by Sun Tzu -

"tak akan serampangan dia dalam gerakannya ia kaya karsa dan membatasi kemungkinan- by Sun Tzu -

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