I think that I reached a certain important point in my trading education. I think the moment I had two months ago was like God appearing to me as burning bush!!!
The moment I talk about is that moment when you realize that systems are mostly useless, indicators all lag and price is king! I started to use trends, support/resistance,and breakouts. This is in fact the most basic form of trading we all start with, but then we loose all that basic stuff along the way in search of the holy grail. It's such a good feeling when it's back!
Now I'm just using trendline as support and resistances and trade the breakouts. With a little help from doji's, hammers etc this is working very very well!
Now this stage is completed in the course of mastering forex, I can move on to implementing and perfecting my money management system.
Never again indicators for me , ever!!!!
Trading evolution
HAL PENTING SAAT MENGHADAPI NEWS
Bagi saya, trading news memiliki resiko yang lebih kecil dibanding saat saya melakukan trading secara teknikal. Meski demikian demikian saya tidak pernah menganggap sepele masalah Teknikal. Banyak bukti bahwa pergerakan harga yang disebabkan oleh News, ketika berhadapan langsung dengan Teknikal kuat maka pergerakaannya akan teredam. Oleh karena itu, sebelum melakukan trading News saya selalu mengamati pergerakan harga sebelum news direlease. Beberapa hal yang selalu menjadi catatan adalah :
1. MA100 dan MA200 di H1, H4, D1dan Timeframe yang lebih tinggi adalah merupakan support dan resistant yang kuat.
2. Daily pivot, juga merupakan support dan resistant yang baik. Terutama bila open price jauh dari pivot.
3. Perhatikan support dan resistant di hari-hari atau jam-jam sebelumnya terutama yang dibuat oleh News kuat dari negara pair yang anda amati.
4. Gambar vertikal support, resistant dan trendline di timeframe H1 dan H4 keatas.
Jadi pada intinya saya selalu memperhatikan support dan resistant terdekat ketika sedang menghadapi News. Dan biasanya support dan resistant tersebut adalah gerbang exit dari posisi saya.
Hal lain yang saya perhatikan adalah:
5. Bila di hari yang sama ada 2 News dan News tersebut adalah milik dari sebuah negara , maka :
Bila News yang lemah direlease terlebih dahulu, maka biasanya tidak banyak trader yang ikut dalam volume perdagangan News tersebut, karena sebagian besar trader menunggu direleasenya News yang lebih besar. Misalnya : Pada hari yang sama, UK Service Production di release jam 4 sore dan UK BOE Interest Rate di release jam 6 sore. Maka biasanya efek yang dihasilkan oleh UK Service Production hanya 50% dari efek yang biasanya terjadi.
Dan bila News yang kuat direlease terlebih dahulu dan menciptakan support atau resistant kuat, maka S/R tersebut akan berlaku bagi News selanjutnya.
6. Jangan ambil posisi melawan arah news setelah news dirilis, meskipun sepertinya sudah hit resistant atau support kuat dan mulai berbalik arah. Ingat!! Support dan resistant hanya digunakan untuk exit target.
7. Jika nilai data News yang telah direlease diperkirakan dapat mengerakkan pair dengan kuat namun ternyata gerakannya tidak sekuat yang kita prediksi dan setelah initial spike ternyata harga langsung rebound ke pre-release price artinya sentiment pasar sedang berlawanan dengan data dari News.
Biasanya setelah rebound harga akan kembali menuju ke arah sesuai data yang di release namun harga akhir dari initial spike akan menjadi S/R kuat dan kemungkinan rebound lagi di S/R tersebut.
Contoh: US NFP akan direlease, konsensus 100K, harga ada di 1.9600, data keluar 60K, diperkirakan menggerakkan pair 60 pips, ternyata di menit pertama harga hanya bergerak 40 pips di 1.9640 dan kemudian harga balik lagi ke dekat pre release price 1.9605, maka jika kita mau beresiko kita ambil posisi buy disini dengan harapan harga bergerak lagi sesuai data yang direlease ke 1.9640 lagi dan segera exit di nilai tersebut.
Jangan berharap harga bergerak lebih jauh lagi mengingat sentiment pasar yang berseberangan dengan nilai data.
Dan jangan ambil posisi SELL karena berseberangan dengan nilai data yang baru direlease.
8. Hati-hati dengan Libur Nasional. Besarnya Efek dari data yang direlease terhadap nilai mata uang akan sangat berkurang bila waktu release data bersamaan dengan hari libur yang tentunya tidak semua trader ambil bagian dalam volume perdagangan pada saat tersebut.
Contoh: NFP 6 April 2007, bersamaan dengan hari Jum'at Agung (Good Friday). Diprediksi dengan nilai data yang direlease dapat menggerakkan GU minimal 90 pips, namun ternyata hanya bergerak lambat sebesar 39 pips di initial spike. Dan total kurang lebih 52 pips.
9. Bila lebih dari 1 data news yang di release diwaktu yang bersamaan dan ternyata data yang direlease mengalami konflik maka yang terjadi adalah :
a. Bila data-data yang direlease memiliki bobot yang berbeda misalnya : AUD Retail Sales (news kelas 1) dan AUD Building Approval (news kelas 3) maka biasanya yang terjadi adalah akan terjadi retrace hingga 50% cepat setelah spike dan kemudian secara perlahan-lahan harga akan bergerak sesuai dengan data news yang lebih kuat.
b. Bila data-data yang direlease memiliki bobot yang sama misalnya : US NFP dan US Unemployment Rate maka biasanya yang terjadi adalah akan terjadi retrace cepat hinggabalik ke prerelease price setelah spike dan kemudian secara cepat harga akan bergerak sesuai dengan data news yang lebih dominant pengaruhnya (dalam hal ini US NFP)
Hey! Your Glasses Don't Work!
"So and so's strategy doesn't work. He shows charts, and indicators, and whatever, but when I do it, it doesn't work."
Why is that?
How can a system work for one person and not the other?
The issue is that when you are trading a discretionary system, and you do enough testing to make it your own (this is a lot of testing -- at least 1,000 trades), you are essentially fitting yourself for a pair of glasses.
These glasses, once you fit yourself for them, work for you. They're your glasses. If you hand them to your friend while he's driving, he's likely to crash. What if he said to you, "These glasses don't work! They are terrible glasses!"
You'd say, "These glasses are not for you. They're mine." When you learn a system from someone else, from a book, a Web site, or a newsletter, you have to remember that in order to make it your own, you have to have your own experiences with the system. You can't just take it out of the box, and put it on like a pair of someone else's glasses.
Knowledge and Confusion
I've learned for myself, and seen it in many others, that the more they or I learn and then try to apply, the more confused we can become.
To me, this doesn't mean that we have to stop learning or reading books or investigating new methods. What it does mean is that it's important to separate the learning process from the application of the learning. I make the analogy that trying to follow multiple trading systems can be like trying to drive a car with multiple steering wheels. It just won't work. It becomes confusing and it's overcomplicated.
The statemens about stepping back and having an open mind, and about you having to learn for yourself, that was quoted in this thread, are so very true in my experience. Through your own observations, and open-minded (so well put!) interaction with new ideas, and reading, etc, you are going to get an idea of what indicators or methods make the most sense to you.
And then you have to do more than observe -- of course this is my opinion and I am excited to hear what others have to say -- then you have to test the methods that you learn. You go back in time and you apply what you have learned and you prove whether it works or not. You learn whether the method experiences drawdowns that are unnacceptable, or whether it has a great win percentage but a bad average winner to loser size, or whether it requires you to keep an unrealistic schedule that negatively affects your health. This process of learning, making a hypothesis, and then testing that hypothesis, can take a long time. That's why so many traders fail, I think: they realize how much effort can go into "making a system your own" and instead they just start trading again, because of financial pressures, an addiction to trading, or because they simply feel that all that testing is unnecessary.
Once that learning and testing process is complete, you start applying what you've tested in the market. Do you get the same results? Or are they not what you expected based on your testing? You can share your results with a friend or mentor or spouse or people at FF -- someone who cares about your success. They can hold you accountable to apply what you have learned and tested in a disciplined way, and then they can help you stop trading if it's not working, or encourage you to be confident and continue to take the necessary risks associated with trading if the system is working.
All throughout this process, you are emphasizing learning and testing, and making a system "your own", and you are de-emphasizing lots of trading, you are reducing stress about whether you are doing it "right", you are proving to yourself that you can learn and test and implement.
And then as you implement a system that you have made your own, and you are profitable, you can repeat the process with more learning, more testing, and so on. It can be a continuous process that lasts a lifetime.
To bring it full circle, hopefully, one helpful thing for me (which I have seen with others) is that they focus their learning on one or two things at a time, then test, then implement, then hold themselves accountable to others and themselves. And this reduces the confusion associated with looking at so many things, so many systems, so many methods, and not "knowing what to follow."
Essential Elements of a Successful Trader
Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
Forex Market Trading and The Mind Games
First, what is Forex: The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with an volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.
Mind Games defined: Mind Games are a kind of social interaction where participants try to screw with one anothers' heads. The concept is most often used colloquially to refer to deceitful, confusing or Machiavellian situations. However some mind games are described by the psychology of transactional analysis.
When it comes to trading on the Forex market, winning is a matter of the mind rather than mind over matter. Any trader who’s been in the game for any length of time will tell you that psychology has a lot to do with both your own performance on the trading floor and with the way that the market is moving. Playing a winning hand depends on knowing your own mind – and understanding the way that psychology moves the market.
Studying the psychology of the market is nothing new. It doesn’t take a genius to understand that any arena that rides and falls on decisions made by people is going to be heavily influenced by the minds of people. Few people take into account all the various levels of mind games that motivate the market, though. If you keep your eye on the way that psychology influences others – including the mass psychology of the people that use the currency on a daily basis – but neglect to know what moves you, you’re going to end up hurting your own position. The best Forex coaches will tell you that before you can really become a successful trader, you have to know yourself and the triggers that influence you. Knowing those will help you overcome them or use them. Are you saying ‘Huh?” about now? Believe me, I understand. I felt the same way the first time that someone tried to explain how the mind games we play with ourselves influence the trades and decisions that we make. Let me break it down into more manageable pieces for you.
Anything involving winning or losing large sums of money becomes emotionally charged.
All right. You’ve heard that playing the market is a mathematical game. Plug in the right numbers, make the right calculations and you’ll come out ahead. So why is it that so many traders end up on the losing end of the market? After all, everyone has access to the same numbers, the same data, the same info – if it’s math, there’s only one right answer, right?
The answer lies in interpretation. The numbers don’t lie, but your mind does. Your hopes and fears can make you see things that just aren’t there. When you invest in a currency, you’re investing more than just money – you make an emotional investment. Being ‘right’ becomes important. Being ‘wrong’ doesn’t just cost you money when you let yourself be ruled by your emotions – it costs you pride. Why else would you let a loser ride in the hope that it will bounce back? It’s that little thing inside your head that says, “I KNOW I’m right on this, dammit!”
To most people, being right is more important than making money.
Here’s the deal. The way to make real money in the forex market is to cut your losses short and let your winners ride. In order to do that, you have GOT to accept that some of your trades are going to lose, cut them loose and move on to another trade. You’ve got to accept that picking a loser is NOT an indication of your self-worth, it’s not a reflection on who you are. It’s simply a loss, and the best way to deal with it is to stop losing money by moving on – and really move on. Moving on means you don’t keep a running total of how many losses you’ve had – that’s the way to paralyze yourself. This brings us to the next point:
Losing traders see loss as failure. Winning traders see loss as learning.
Not too long ago, my twelve year old son told me that before Thomas Edison invented a working light bulb, he invented 100 light bulbs that didn’t work. But he didn’t give up – because he knew that creating a source of light from electricity was possible. He believed in his overall theory – so when one design didn’t work, he simply knew that he’d eliminated one possibility. Keep eliminating possibilities long enough, and you’ll eventually find the possibility that works.
Winning traders see loss in the same way. They haven’t failed – they’ve learned something new about the way that they and the market work. Winning traders can look at the big picture while playing in the small arena.
Suppose I told you that last year, I made 75 trades that lost money, and 25 that made money. In the eyes of most people, that would make me a pretty poor trader. I’m wrong 75% of the time. But what if I told you that my average loss was $1000, but my average profit on a winning trade was $10,000? That means that I lost $75,000 on trades – but I made $250,000, making my overall profit $175,000. It’s a pretty clear numbers game – but how do you keep on trading when you’re losing in trade after trade? Simple – just remember that one trade does not make or break a trader. Focus on the trade at hand, follow the triggers that you’ve set up – but define yourself by what really matters – the overall record.
Bottom line: You can’t keep emotions out of the picture, but you can learn not to let them control your decisions. Keep it all in perspective and realise that there are a lot of big boys playing this game and playing it to win...
The New Market Wizards by Jack Swagger
In these absorbing interviews with star performers in the financial markets, Schwager ( Market Wizards ) humanizes the mechanics and psychology behind billion-dollar daily world trading in such sophisticated instruments as currencies, stock options, commodity futures, and mutual-fund accounts by individuals, investment firms and group-trading computerized "money machines." One trader focuses on market response to news events, another calculates mathematical probabilities--one even cocks an ear to the noise level on the exchange floor. All rank assiduous research, self-confidence, a specific plan and the courage to cut losses among essentials to success. Few consider their work gambling, but Schwager entertainingly argues that a successful trader needs many of the qualities of a good poker player. Though the subject matter is esoteric, there is much here to attract the general reader, and Schwager appends a "primer" of technical basics.This is the BEST of the 3 volume series. This book was absolutely outstanding and worth not only buying but keeping. I did not like volume #1 at all; there was really nothing in that & I doubted whether the traders interviewed had anything of value to give the reader. This book though is of a much higher quality as it delves more into Trading Systems & their psychology than previously.
A key thing you will learn from these interviews is best exemplified by Mike Carr a Turtle: Don't care what the market will do, Care what you will do when the market does it.
The gem in this series is Warren Eckhardt. In the first book the Ritchie Dennis & Will O'Neil interviews were the real gems. The others in vol#1 were totally without value including the GREAT Ed Seykota who is just a wise-acre with flippant answers and a juvenile sense of humour. Here in volume 2 even minor traders have more to say, perhaps Jack got better in getting information out of them?
Read More......
Forex Scalping
It’s a traders dream, getting in and out of the market each day and earning a few hundred dollars here and there which over time to make huge long term profits. It’s the aim of an increasing number of traders, but you need to be aware of one important fact. Day trading does not work and intra day trading in forex markets means the only person who gets scalped is the person trying it – normally of their entire trading account quickly. So why doesn’t forex day trading and scalping work? The answer is obvious if you think about it, so here it is: Each day trillions of dollars are traded by millions of traders who fall into four main groups: 1. Hedgers Who are not looking to profit from currency fluctuations but simply looking to hedge their portfolios. 2. Central Banks Big players, who intervene occasionally to stabilize currency, markets should they believe it necessary. 3. Large traders Well capitalized individuals and professional money managers. 4. Small speculators Everyone else. They all think differently and they all have different objectives and different methods and to say you predict what these vast diverse groups or traders will do in under a day or less is laughable. But people buy into the myth and they lose all the time. So why do people attempt it? Well many are attracted by marketing copy that promise riches with low risk, but of course the people who tell them this and sell them the secrets, don’t trade themselves they make their money selling courses. Other traders think it is a low risk way to trade but if you cannot predict where short term volatility will take prices you will lose – you can’t get the odds in your favour and may as well flip a coin. So forex scalping does not work and by its nature will never work as volatility can and does take prices anywhere in a day. Ever seen anyone who sells a course or claims to have made money forex scalping with the proof? By this I mean a real time track record ( not a meaningless hypothetical track record done in hindsight) no neither have I. Forex scalping is not a guaranteed way to win, it’s a guaranteed way to lose in forex trading and lose quickly. Forget the hype of forex scalping and see the reality for what it is, a great way to lose. If you want to trade currency markets get the odds in your favour by trading in periods where the data can actually help you put the odds in your favour.
Forex scalping is “the word” these days! It offers to give you handsome profits with out much of a risk. So lets get started in this article. We are going to cover the facts related to forex scalping for beginners.
Forex Scalping works this way. You look to make a neat profit by making small regular trading within a set time frame. I would put it in a more simple way. You make very small trades, therefore risking a small amount of money ( Of course when you profit as well, you a gain a small amount). You make plenty of such small transactions within a day. So you actually hope that little drops of water will make a mighty ocean. The fact of the matter is that it has never worked and never will.
Why?
Because Forex scalping is simply based on an incorrect belief or logic or whatever you want to call it. Infact, I am going to show you in the article why forex scalping can be the easiest way to lose your money in forex trading. Read on!!
Let us first take a look at the market and how they move.
We have approximately Trillions of dollars traded in the market daily by millions of traders. So, it will be ridiculous for us to assume that we can predict what this vast mass of traders will do in a short period of time
Let me direct you towards a Fact:
“All short-term volatility is random.”
That means?
Yes, that means prices can go up and down ( up or down? No one can predict). Infact , Neither Support and resistance levels are valid nor any of the technical indicators you have. All will fail in this random environment.
“I have seen successful track records though!”
Sure you have – and they are sold by vendors with a vested interest.
There are loads of them and they are all designed to bring forex scalping to beginners - for a few hundred bucks you get rich, Ha Ha ! that’s Laughable to me!
Please Consider a reality check!
These vendors make the much promising forex scalping systems. Hey , why don’t you guys do forex scalping instead of making these systems. They know it wont work. Hence, lure the unsuspecting ones in to forex scalping
What will be shown to you by them are amazing track records with neat profits with draw downs being a rarity and almost non-existent. A little of your common sense coming in to play will tell you that its too good to be true. And when you get an intuition like that, it probably is “TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE”
Many traders fall in the scheme, lose big time and still wonder “WHY?” or worse “WHY ME”
Take a closer look at the forex scaling track records, you will see the words “hindsight” or “simulation” written all over the track record as a disclaimer.
What does this imply?
That the track record is done in hindsight and simulated, knowing the closing prices!
How hard is that?
Any eight year old kid could do that and so could anyone who can read and write and you can to – My friends, these track records are useless and not even worth the paper they are written on.
Of course , you can try looking for an authentic track record. Take my word that it will take you a long time. I never found one in my life. SO if you do come across one, sure let me know.
The fact is forex scalping for beginners takes advantage of innocent and gullible investors who think making a profit is that easy and they don’t stop to think how authentic these systems are or what logic is in scalping?
If You Want to Win
You need to have odds in your favour. That simply means that you need to trade within longer time frames. That rules forex scalping out
If you are just a beginner at forex trading and looking to make a plunge in the forex market, Make a detailed study on the market. Follow the market for few months before investing your hard money in it. You can find some great ebooks here to get you started.
Do avoid the scheming companies wanting you to try forex scalping for the much-promised handsome profits, which will never materialize and do visit my blog for more articles and updates.
Eighteen Tips in Forex
You can never have too many tips or tricks up your sleeve when you are trading. Most of the tips I’m including here are received wisdom, trading truisms that you should remember. They apply to all markets, but are particularly useful in a volatile and technical market like the FOREX
- Pay attention to the market. Exit and enter trades based on market information. Don’t wait for a price you think the currency should hit when the market has changed direction on you.
- There are times when, due to a lack of liquidity or excessive volatility, you should not trade at all. On a similar note, never trade when you are sick. You can’t count on yourself to be alert to the shifts of the markets, and make good decisions.
- Trading systems that work in an up market may not work in a down market, and a system that works for trending markets, or for range bound markets may not work in other markets. Have a system for each type of market.
- Up market and down market patterns are ALWAYS there, but you have to look for the dominant trends. Always select trades that move with the trends
- During the blowout stage of the market, either up or down, the risk managers are usually issuing margin call position liquidation orders. They don't generally check the screen to see what’s overbought or oversold; they just keep issuing liquidation orders. Make sure you stay out of their way.
- Trust your instincts. If something feels wrong about a trade, don’t make it. It’s better to be superstitious than to loose money.
- Rumour is king. Buy when you hear the rumour, sell when you hear the news.
- The first and last ticks are always the most expensive. Get in the market late, and out early. And never trade in the direction of a gap, either opening or closing.
- When everyone else is in, it's time for you to get out. If a stock or currency is overbought, it’s time to exit your position.
- Don’t worry about missing out on an opportunity to trade. There will always be another good one just around the corner. If the trade you are considering doesn’t meet all your entry signals but it seems to good to pass up, remember, you’re never going to run out of trades you can make.
- Don’t get too confident. No one can predict the market with 100% accuracy. You need to always expect the unexpected. If you become uneasy, or the market becomes choppy, exit your trades.
- Don't turn three losing trades in a row into six. When you’re off, turn off the screen, do something else. Often the best way to break a streak of consecutive loses is to not trade for a day.
- But, don't stop trading when you’re on a winning streak.
- Measure your success by the profit made in a day, not on a trade. It’s even better to measure it over two or three days. A successful trader’s goal is to make money, not to win on every trade.
- Scalpers reduce the number of variables affecting market risk by being in a position only for a few seconds. Day traders reduce market risk by being in trades for minutes. If you convert a scalp or day trade into a position trade, you probably didn’t analyze the risks of the trade properly.
- There is no secret to understanding the market. You can spend much of your valuable time and money looking for these kinds of secrets. It’s better to take the time to create a solid trading system, and realize that the secret to success is hard work.
- Never ask for someone else's opinion, they probably didn’t do as much homework as you did anyways.
- When the market is going up, say it out loud. When the market is going down, say that out loud too. You’ll be amazed at how hard it is to say what is going on right in front of you when you want it the market to be doing something else.
Read More......
How To Lose Everything - The Worst Trading Strategy Ever That You Might Be Using
You may be wondering, “Why we need to know about the worst trading strategy around?” There are a couple of reasons. First, to warn you about it. You really don't want to end up using this system. Secondly, because once you know the worst possible strategy, the one that is designed to maximize your losses over the long run, then you can reverse it to craft a strategy which does the exact opposite.
With what you learn from this system, you will be able to create a system that will produce some tremendous long-term gains. The strategy I'm referring to, which is simply the worst system I have ever encountered, is known as averaging down. This is the process of buying more shares of a stock that you had previously acquired, as the price drops.
Traders often purchase shares this way in an effort to reduce their initial entry price.
Only bad investors average down by buying shares of a sinking stock to decrease their overall average price per share. This strategy is hardly ever effective, and is often like throwing good money after bad. It also magnifies a traders losses if the stock keeps dropping. Remember, just because a share is cheap now that doesn't mean it's not going to get any cheaper. However, let's examine how this devastating strategy works. Say you bought one thousand shares at $40.
The novice investor may not have a stop loss in place, and the share price falls to $30 dollars. Here comes the stupidity of this strategy – to average down the novice trader might by another thousand shares at $30 to lower the average cost per share that he'd already purchased. So, his average cost per share would now be $35.
Unfortunately, the share price may fall even further, and the novice trader will again buy more shares to reduce the average cost per share. They end up buying more and more into a stock that's losing their money.
Now, imagine this strategy being applied to a portfolio of stocks. In the end, all the capital will automatically be allocated to the worse performing stocks in the portfolio while the best performing stocks are sold off. The result is, at best, a disastrous underperformance versus the market.
If a trader uses an averaging down system and uses margins, their losses will be magnified even further. The biggest problem with this strategy is that a trader's gains are cut short, and the losers are left to run. My advice is – never average down. The process of buying a stock, watching it fall, and then throwing more money at it in the hopes that you'll either get back to break even or make a bigger killing is one of the most misguided pieces of advice on Wall Street. Never be faced with a situation where you'll ask yourself, “Should I risk even more than I originally intended in a desperate attempt to lower my cost and save my butt?”
Instead, craft a simple, robust system with good money management rules. I can practically guarantee the results will be better than averaging down.
Kebetulan dan Kepastian Dlm Hidup & Trading
Di dunia ini setiap hari bisa saja terjadi banyak sekali kejadian yang membawa keberuntungan dan juga kemalangan. Ketika mendapat keberuntungan, banyak orang tidak menganggap bahwa hal itu adalah berkah (pahala) dari perbuatan baik. Mendapatkan balasan baik selalu ditafsirkan sebagai suatu hal yang kebetulan terjadi, alasannya adalah masih banyak orang yang berbuat kebaikan sampai sekarang pun masih belum mendapatkan balasan baik; namun ketika kemalangan menimpa, orang juga tidak menganggap bahwa hal tersebut adalah balasan dari perbuatan jahat mereka, malah menafsirkan kemalangan tersebut sebagai kejadian yang kebetulan, alasannya adalah didunia ini masih banyak orang jahat yang kejahatannya walau sudah bertumpuk-tumpuk namun masih juga tidak mendapatkan balasan atas kejahatannya.
Namun jikalau ditelaah dengan serius, akan memahami bahwa setiap hal yang terjadi didalam dunia manusia tidak ada satupun yang kebetulan. Orang-orang sering menyebut manifestasi dari sebuah materi yang sering dijumpai ataupun yang tidak pernah dijumpai sebagai sebuah “kebetulan”, banyak kebetulan bukanlah kebetulan melainkan adalah sebuah kepastian. Maka dari itu jika melakukan analisa terhadap manifestasi sebuah materi yang muncul dengan kebetulan, akan mendapatkan bahwa kebetulan hanyalah tampak luarnya, kepastian adalah hakikinya.
Misalkan ketika seseorang sedang sakit atau mengalami kecelakaan lalu lintas, kebanyakan orang bilang bahwa hal ini adalah suatu kebetulan, akan tetapi didalam kehidupan seseorang, munculnya proses lahir, tua, sakit, mati adalah suatu kepastian. Hanya saja manusia tidak bisa meramalkan kapan terjadi; ketika seseorang sangat beruntung didalam suatu undian/lotre, telah mendapatkan hadiah besar, semua orang akan bilang itu adalah sebuah kebetulan. Akan tetapi didalam undian/lotre pasti akan ada orang yang mendapatkan hadiah, hanya manusia tidak bisa meramalkan siapa yang bakal mendapatkan hadiah. Ketika seseorang keluar rumah, diluar dugaan berjumpa dengan temannya atau kenalannya, orang-orang juga bisa berkata bahwa hal itu adalah kebetulan, akan tetapi jika seseorang keluar rumah untuk menuruti kemauannya bertemu dengan orang lain adalah sebuah kepastian. Hanya saja dia tidak bisa meramalkan bakal siapa yang akan dijumpai....
Ini menunjukkan bahwa kebetulan adalah tampak luar dari suatu kejadian, dia berbentuk. Kepastian adalah hakiki dari suatu kejadian, dia tidak berbentuk. Tampak luar yang berbentuk mendapatkan penentuan dan bergantung pada hakiki yang tak berbentuk. Maka dari itu proses meneliti perkembangan dari suatu kejadian hendaknya menembus gejala luar dengan melihat hakikinya.
Di dunia ini banyak orang yang tidak ingin mengakui keberadaan balasan dari sebab dan akibat, oleh karena dia telah berbuat kejahatan, juga ada sebagian orang yang telah berbuat kebaikan tapi tidak segera mendapatkan balasan kebaikan lalu dia tidak mengakui keberadaan balasan dari sebab dan akibat, maka dari itu mereka mengatakan orang baik yang mendapatkan balasan baik sebagai suatu kebetulan, begitu juga kepada orang jahat yang mendapatkan balasan kejahatan disebutnya sebagai suatu kebetulan. Kenyataannya jika seseorang banyak melakukan kejahatan pasti akan mendapatkan balasan kejahatan, hanya mereka tidak bisa meramal kapan dia akan menerima balasannya. Balasan dari kebaikan dan kejahatan juga siklus dari sebab dan akibat bagaikan sebuah jala yang tak kelihatan, jaring langit bermata besar, tapi tidak ada suatu apapun yang bisa lolos, dengan adil mengikat seluruh kehidupan yang ada didunia ini. Jika manusia tidak mempercayai lagi akan keberadaannya yang dikarenakan kasat mata, hal itu bagaikan mencuri lonceng dengan menutup telinga.
Kebetulan dan kepastian meskipun hanya terpaut dengan pikiran sekilas, namun bisa merefleksikan taraf pemikiran dari seseorang. Di dunia ini orang yang benar-benar pintar juga seorang kultivator, mereka tahu bahwa kebetulan itu tidak eksis, semua peristiwa yang terjadi didunia ini memiliki kepastian. Didalam kekaburan, terdapat kehendak langit. Mulai dari hukum alam yang mengatur lahir tua sakit mati dari kehidupan seorang manusia, hingga hukum yang mengatur perkembangan peradaban manusia, tidak ada satupun yang luput dari genggaman kehendak Langit.
Forex Trading Tips
This two-part report clearly and simply details essential tips
on how to avoid typical pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.
Trade pairs, not currencies - Like any relationship, you have to know both sides. Success or failure in forex trading depends upon being right about both currencies and how they impact one another, not just one.
Knowledge is Power - When starting out trading forex online, it is essential that you understand the basics of this market if you want to make the most of your investments.
The main forex influencer is global news and events. For example, say an ECB statement is released on European interest rates which typically will cause a flurry of activity. Most newcomers react violently to news like this and close their positions and subsequently miss out on some of the best trading opportunities by waiting until the market calms down. The potential in the forex market is in the volatility, not in its tranquility.
Unambitious trading - Many new traders will place very tight orders in order to take very small profits. This is not a sustainable approach because although you may be profitable in the short run (if you are lucky), you risk losing in the longer term as you have to recover the difference between the bid and the ask price before you can make any profit and this is much more difficult when you make small trades than when you make larger ones.
Over-cautious trading - Like the trader who tries to take small incremental profits all the time, the trader who places tight stop losses with a retail forex broker is doomed. As we stated above, you have to give your position a fair chance to demonstrate its ability to produce. If you don't place reasonable stop losses that allow your trade to do so, you will always end up undercutting yourself and losing a small piece of your deposit with every trade.
Independence - If you are new to forex, you will either decide to trade your own money or to have a broker trade it for you. So far, so good. But your risk of losing increases exponentially if you either of these two things:
Interfere with what your broker is doing on your behalf (as his strategy might require a long gestation period);
Seek advice from too many sources - multiple input will only result in multiple losses. Take a position, ride with it and then analyse the outcome - by yourself, for yourself.
Tiny margins - Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.
No strategy - The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.
Trading Off-Peak Hours - Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple - don't.
The only way is up/down - When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.
Trade on the news - Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.
Exiting Trades - If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.
Don't trade too short-term - If you are aiming to make less than 20 points profit, don't undertake the trade. The spread you are trading on will make the odds against you far too high.
Don't be smart - The most successful traders I know keep their trading simple. They don't analyse all day or research historical trends and track web logs and their results are excellent.
Tops and Bottoms - There are no real "bargains" in trading foreign exchange. Trade in the direction the price is going in and you're results will be almost guaranteed to improve.
Ignoring the technicals- Understanding whether the market is over-extended long or short is a key indicator of price action. Spikes occur in the market when it is moving all one way.
Emotional Trading - Without that all-important strategy, you're trades essentially are thoughts only and thoughts are emotions and a very poor foundation for trading. When most of us are upset and emotional, we don't tend to make the wisest decisions. Don't let your emotions sway you.
Confidence - Confidence comes from successful trading. If you lose money early in your trading career it's very difficult to regain it; the trick is not to go off half-cocked; learn the business before you trade. Remember, knowledge is power.
The second and final part of this report clearly and simply details more essential tips on how to avoid the pitfalls and start making more money in your forex trading.
Take it like a man - If you decide to ride a loss, you are simply displaying stupidity and cowardice. It takes guts to accept your loss and wait for tomorrow to try again. Sticking to a bad position ruins lots of traders - permanently. Try to remember that the market often behaves illogically, so don't get commit to any one trade; it's just a trade. One good trade will not make you a trading success; it's ongoing regular performance over months and years that makes a good trader.
Focus - Fantasising about possible profits and then "spending" them before you have realised them is no good. Focus on your current position(s) and place reasonable stop losses at the time you do the trade. Then sit back and enjoy the ride - you have no real control from now on, the market will do what it wants to do.
Don't trust demos - Demo trading often causes new traders to learn bad habits. These bad habits, which can be very dangerous in the long run, come about because you are playing with virtual money. Once you know how your broker's system works, start trading small amounts and only take the risk you can afford to win or lose.
Stick to the strategy - When you make money on a well thought-out strategic trade, don't go and lose half of it next time on a fancy; stick to your strategy and invest profits on the next trade that matches your long-term goals.
Trade today - Most successful day traders are highly focused on what's happening in the short-term, not what may happen over the next month. If you're trading with 40 to 60-point stops focus on what's happening today as the market will probably move too quickly to consider the long-term future. However, the long-term trends are not unimportant; they will not always help you though if you're trading intraday.
The clues are in the details - The bottom line on your account balance doesn't tell the whole story. Consider individual trade details; analyse your losses and the telling losing streaks. Generally, traders that make money without suffering significant daily losses have the best chance of sustaining positive performance in the long term.
Simulated Results - Be very careful and wary about infamous "black box" systems. These so-called trading signal systems do not often explain exactly how the trade signals they generate are produced. Typically, these systems only show their track record of extraordinary results - historical results. Successfully predicting future trade scenarios is altogether more complex. The high-speed algorithmic capabilities of these systems provide significant retrospective trading systems, not ones which will help you trade effectively in the future.
Get to know one cross at a time - Each currency pair is unique, and has a unique way of moving in the marketplace. The forces which cause the pair to move up and down are individual to each cross, so study them and learn from your experience and apply your learning to one cross at a time.
Risk Reward - If you put a 20 point stop and a 50 point profit your chances of winning are probably about 1-3 against you. In fact, given the spread you're trading on, it's more likely to be 1-4. Play the odds the market gives you.
Trading for Wrong Reasons - Don't trade if you are bored, unsure or reacting on a whim. The reason that you are bored in the first place is probably because there is no trade to make in the first place. If you are unsure, it's probably because you can't see the trade to make, so don't make one.
Zen Trading- Even when you have taken a position in the markets, you should try and think as you would if you hadn't taken one. This level of detachment is essential if you want to retain your clarity of mind and avoid succumbing to emotional impulses and therefore increasing the likelihood of incurring losses. To achieve this, you need to cultivate a calm and relaxed outlook. Trade in brief periods of no more than a few hours at a time and accept that once the trade has been made, it's out of your hands.
Determination - Once you have decided to place a trade, stick to it and let it run its course. This means that if your stop loss is close to being triggered, let it trigger. If you move your stop midway through a trade's life, you are more than likely to suffer worse moves against you. Your determination must be show itself when you acknowledge that you got it wrong, so get out.
Short-term Moving Average Crossovers - This is one of the most dangerous trade scenarios for non professional traders. When the short-term moving average crosses the longer-term moving average it only means that the average price in the short run is equal to the average price in the longer run. This is neither a bullish nor bearish indication, so don't fall into the trap of believing it is one.
Stochastic - Another dangerous scenario. When it first signals an exhausted condition that's when the big spike in the "exhausted" currency cross tends to occur. My advice is to buy on the first sign of an overbought cross and then sell on the first sign of an oversold one. This approach means that you'll be with the trend and have successfully identified a positive move that still has some way to go. So if percentage K and percentage D are both crossing 80, then buy! (This is the same on sell side, where you sell at 20).
One cross is all that counts - EURUSD seems to be trading higher, so you buy GBPUSD because it appears not to have moved yet. This is dangerous. Focus on one cross at a time - if EURUSD looks good to you, then just buy EURUSD.
Wrong Broker - A lot of FOREX brokers are in business only to make money from yours. Read forums, blogs and chats around the net to get an unbiased opinion before you choose your broker.
Too bullish - Trading statistics show that 90% of most traders will fail at some point. Being too bullish about your trading aptitude can be fatal to your long-term success. You can always learn more about trading the markets, even if you are currently successful in your trades. Stay modest, and keep your eyes open for new ideas and bad habits you might be falling in to.
Interpret forex news yourself - Learn to read the source documents of forex news and events - don't rely on the interpretations of news media or others.
Because human are all the same
Be it a passionate young Nick Leeson,
or a family man Rusnak of Allied Irish Bank, they are all human. And human are all the same. Human has emotions. Human has creativity. Let alone the creativity be used when developing a system. And the emotion be the motivator for developing a better system. But when trading a live account, let the system run itself with 0% emotion and creativity. That is why great successful traders use 100% mechanical trading systems.
Don't hate market makers.Trade like them.
“Successful market makers have controlled the ego
-based need to be absolutely correct. Because markets are constantly in motion, it is almost impossible to be exactly right on (in your entries).” Such a probative approach to the markets is at the heart of most successful professional trading.
Dealers know full well that their first foray into the trade is often wrong. They rarely commit the full position amount on the first try.
One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is that professionals scale into trades while amateurs average down. This statement may seem like clever wordplay, but it’s not. Let’s assume that both the professional and the amateur decide to risk two percent of their capital account on a particular trade. The professional knows full well that he will not be able to hit the exact entry point on his first attempt. Therefore, he may allocate only 0.3% of his capital to the first entry, 0.6% on the second and 1.2% to the third – and stop himself out at -2.7% away from original entry price (-2% risk).. Read more here.
Having dispensed with disclaimers, let’s examine one common strategy many retail traders like to follow – the break-out trade. Using dealing methodology, here is an approach to possibly make the trade less risky. As shown in Figure 1, the trader can scale into the trade three times. By diversifying his position, he does not even need to have price exceed his initial entry point to record a profitable trade! If, however, he is correct in anticipating the direction, he still can capture the move with a partial entry. Consequently, by modifying the risk, the retail speculator can improve
Trade only the price:Despite
It shows how profitable traders/fund managers do their trading.
He is an old pro trader. He runs one of the largest clearing firms on the NYMEX. He has his unique way of doing things and clearly is not a trend follower. That said, his concern about knowing how to take losses properly echoed the wisdom of Wall Street's great trend traders. His most interesting comment was about the word "despite". He loved to see the word. For example, if you see the talking heads saying, "Despite bad news Apple stock went higher", he would view that as an opportunity to go long even more. Conversely, if he saw "despite good news, Apple went lower", he would go short. He wasn't trying to preach fundamentals or "news" reading, but just wanted to pass along his insights from the last 20 years. Sure, it was short and simple wisdom, but then again most good Wall Street wisdom is that way, the hard part as he reminded me is the execution.
A quick note: DESPITE of whatever the news and fundamentals say, they trade the price. But this doesn't mean they use technical analysis mumbo jumbo. Not analysis. Not prediction.
Algorithmic trading. There's no other way better.
Penggunaan mechanical system dalam bentuk EA di MT4, dibandingkan dgn trading manual dgn menggunakan segala kemampuan berfikir manusia beserta unsur emosi dan psikologinya, saya sendiri punya pegangan dalil2 sebagai berikut:
dalil #1:
utk trading, kita hrus pakai metoda atau strategi yg kita yakini bahwa kalau dijalankan, akan profit. metoda atau strategi ini bisa macem2, bisa mekanis ataupun murni feeling, atau tebak2an.. tapi prinsipnya adalah kita akan menjalankan aktifitas trading menggunakan suatu cara -apapun itu bentuknya- yang kita yakini memberi peluang besar utk profit. Lha kalo kita gak punya strategi yg kita rasa akan profit, kita tentu gak akan bisa memulai trading kan ya?
dalil #2:
untuk bisa memilih strategi yang kita yakini akan profit, tentu kita harus melihat dulu, kira-kira apa bener suatu ide tentang strategi itu bakalan profit. Misalnya kalau ada ide strategi trading berupa: "buy kalau market retrace di fibo, lalu exit saat overbought", tentu akan wajar sekali kalau kita cek ke historical, lihat2 secara visual di historical chart, apakah kalau kita lakukan strategi itu memang benar ada peluang akan profit. Lalu kalau ternyata kita harus perhatikan kondisi tertentu seperti big news time dll, itu juga kita lihat di historical. Hal ini tentu merupakan hal yg biasa dalam mencari-cari ide trading, kan? Setiap trader yg berusaha mencari strategi pilihannya, pasti melakukan hal ini, yaitu pemeriksaan historical, atau istilahnya backtest. backtest ini bisa manual/visual, atau mekanis utk lebih akurat.
dalil #3:
memeriksa suatu ide strategi tertentu dengan teknik pemeriksaan visual secara manual, memiliki banyak sekali kelemahan dan keterbatasan.
Kelemahan2 itu antara lain:
- seringkali kita memeriksa dengan bias/keberpihakan. seorang trader yg terlatih mungkin bisa mengurangi faktor ini. keberpihakan ini maksudnya begini mas: kita lakukan pengamatan visual untuk mencari pembenaran dari ide strategi kita. Jadi tiap kali kita lihat kejadian kalau kriteria entry-exit yg kita ingin periksa ternyata menghasilkan profit, kita hanya perhatikan itu saja. Kita lupa perhatikan bahwa ada banyak kondisi yang ternya berakibat kerugian, dan itu kita abaikan krn hasilnya tidak seperti yg kita inginkan. We see what we want to see.
- kelemahan parah lainnya adalah adanya faktor "oversight", yaitu misalnya kita buy kalau marketnya breakout ke atas suatu trend line, kita pikir kita bisa jalankan strategi itu, padahal trend line nya terbentuk dari titik-titik fraktal sebelum dan sesudah kejadian itu. ya ini contoh ekstrim, tapi kesalahan "oversight" ini sering kali dialami oleh orang2 yg baru mulai mencoba mengembangkan strategi trading.
- kelemahan lain: bila di historical chart kita melihat ada move naik yg 'bagus', dan kita ingin bisa menangkap gerakan itu dan mengkapitalisasi profit dari gerakan itu, lalu kita cari2 kondisi yg mendahului gerakan ini, lalu kita anggap kita menemukan suatu strategi. begitu terus kita lakukan tiap kali kita lihat ada gerakan 'bagus' di market yg ingin bisa kita tangkap, kita coba-coba cari kondisi di market yg mendahuluinya. padahal kondisi itu berbeda2, dan itu hanya kelihatan kalau kita sudah lihat gerakan 'bagus' yg kita inginkan.
SEMUA kelemahan dan keterbatasan ini akan hilang kalau kita lakukan pemeriksaan menggunakan teknik non-manual, misalnya pakai program statistik, di excel, atau pakai backtesternya metatrader.
dalil #4
Kemudian kita sudah menemukan suatu strategi yg ternyata memang profit, misalnya tiap kali market bikin triangle di jam tertentu, lalu break ke atas saat MACD di long term mengarah naik -- dan ini semua sudah ditest dengan cara yg akurat dan menghasilkan kesimpulan-kesimpulan sbb:
- "ooohhh... strategi ini kalau dijalankan memang profit"
- "rata2 dalam sebulan, kena SL hanya 5 kali, sedangkan selebihnya rata2 ada 20 yang kena TP"
Kalau kita sudah punya strategi yg setelah diperiksa memberi kesimpulan2 bagus seperti ini, tentu kita ingin menjalankannya secara disiplin kan?
Nah di sini lah faktor psikologi seringkali sangat mengganggu. Seringkali strategi yg seharusnya profit, tapi malah menjadi merugikan karena tradernya terganggu dari segi psikologi. Macem2 masalah psikologi yg bisa terjadi mas. Misalnya utk contoh trader yg pakai strategi triangle breakoutnya tadi:
- Sang trader enggan menuruti rules nya sendiri krn tiba2 ngerasa "kok kayaknya ngeri ya, buy di sini, walaupun triangle udah break ke atas, tapi kan market udah naik tinggi beberapa hari belakangan ini"..
- Sang trader tiba-tiba mengambil posisi trade padahal tidak ada kondisi yg sesuai dengan rules nya, krn tiba2 berfikir "ini mestinya bakalan naik nih, walaupun gak ada triangle, tapi ini kan marketnya udah bolak-balik di bawah resistance ini, jadi sekarang udah break, kita mesti buruan masuk nih supaya nggak ketinggalan".
- dan masalah ketidak-disiplinan lainnya, terutama masalah exit, menggeser SL, position sizing yg seenak perutnya, dsb dsb dsb..
nah kalau kita udah test/periksa ide strategi kita dengan menggunakan teknik yg akurat, misalnya menggunakan algoritma di metatrader, mestinya strategi itulah yg akan kita jalankan dengan disiplin kan.. disiplin artinya disiplin, nggak diubah2. gak dibikin pengecualian2 yg bebeda-beda tiap saat. kalau memang ada kondisi yg akan dikecualikan, misalnya gak akan trading kalau market New York libur, ya itu mesti diperiksa juga di historical kalau dilakukan begitu hasilnya gimana, apa memang lebih baik atau tidak. Kalau memang lbih baik, ya itu lah yg hrus dijalankan dengan disiplin, dst.
Trading dengan disiplin ini semua akan jauh lebih mudah bila kita jalankan strategi kita menggunakan suatu computer-programmed algorithm, misalnya pakai tools alert di MT4, atau bahkan pakai tools automatic trading di MT4 menggunakan EA itu.
dalil #5
Kalau kita tidak percaya dengan suatu strategi akan profit dijalankan krn kita pikir market akan berubah sehingga misalnya di contoh di atas, strategi triangle dan MACD itu kayaknya cuman profit di dulu2 aja, tapi besok2 belum tentu, ya lalu kita tidak punya alasan yg kuat utk menjalankannya, bukan? Di sini, menurut saya, kembali ke faktor psikologi dan rasional.
Kalau strategi tarik2 garis dgn supp/res atau fibo itu kita pikir gak akan profit lagi di masa depan, ya berarti kita gak akan pakai strategi itu juga. Kalau kita gak percaya suatu strategi punya harapan akan profit, lalu dengan apa kita akan trading dong. Sampai saat ini, sepenjang pengetahuan saya, utk menjalankan suatu strategi utk ditradingkan live, setidaknya kita hrus punya harapan bhwa strategi itu akan profit kalau dijalankan. Lebih baik lagi tidak hanya harapan, tapi juga keyakinan, yg kita dapatkan dari hasil pemeriksaan yg menunjukkan hasil yg baik, dan pemeriksaannya akurat.
Dan kalau kita yakin strategi trsebut mestinya profit, tentu kita ingin lakukan dengan disiplin se-disiplin-disiplinnya, kan.
Semua dalil2 dalam pengembangan dan eksekusi strategi trading di atas tadi menunjukkan argumentasi yg sangat kuat utk menggunakan automated system. Gak ada pilihan lain, menurut saya.
Kalaupun artificial intelligence kita percaya bisa menjadi tool yg lbih baik, dan kita tidak percaya thd strategi yg hanya linear matematis biasa, ya lakukan itu. Do whatever you want to do.
Kalau setelah kita periksa suatu strategi secara akurat menggunakan EA di MT4, lalu forward testing menunjukkan hasil bagus juga, tapi begitu mau live kita malah tidak percaya bahwa market akan berlaku begitu lagi, ya kita punya hak penuh utk tidak menggunakan strategi itu utk live. Don't do anything we don't wanna do.
Tapi kalau dalam keadaan itu lalu kita drop out strategi itu hanya krn tidak berani, ya lalu mau trading pakai strategi apa? There's no any other way better.
arah teknik tradingku
arahkan semua ke weekly, krn byk kelebihannya:
1.semua org di dunia sama open closenya: asia open, usa close
2.kebal news
3.TP gede
4.bisa mengerjakan yg lain
Asal kita pake teknik break pada akhirnya "in the long run" kita akan menang.
- Turtle, break 5 bar
- K2P break peak
- Pattern, semua pattern adalah break: rectangle,segi3,H&S,flag dll
- Tlatomi, conform indicator break
- asia H & L break range
- pola 123
- spike
- nail market
- triple screen
- dll
Teknik break ini sering kalah tp dikit, kalo menang bykkk. Jadi intinya cuma hrs berani loss dg udah diperhitungkan dulu.Cut loss short & let profit run
Di sini LIMIT benar2 dilarang keras. Limit & hedging adalah suatu teknik yg menjebak, ini dipakai para bandar utk membodohi trader & nasabah
NB. Kalau mau entry break di market SWISS ditunda dulu, krn byk jebakan
Successful Forex Trading
Forex trading is fast becoming one of the easiest ways to earn large amounts of money on your investment. Then again, it can also be the easiest way to lose all of your money in a short period of time. That is, if you do not know what you are doing. The fact is that even seasoned traders make mistakes and only through the understanding of basic principles and the application of sound strategies can you be assured of earning money in the long run.
One of the most basic things that you have to understand about Forex trading is that there will always be losing streaks along with the winning ones. Having this fact in mind will keep you going during those times that you do not get a good deal. The best way to handle Forex trading is to have a reliable trading system coupled with a rigid money management system.
There are many different strategies employed in Forex trading today. What you should do is either adopt one of them or come up with your own. No matter which path you choose to take, the important thing is that your trading system has been proven or can be proven to be reliable. How would you know that your trading system is reliable?
It is quite simple, really. A reliable trading system is one which gives you more winning trades than losing ones. More than this, your winning trades should be – in general – of greater value than your losing trades. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure this one out. More wins with greater value equals profits. No matter how you come up with your trading system, the bottom line is that you get consistent results.
Once you have come up with your trading strategy, try it out first. You can do this by using a demo account before trading live. Using a demo account is advantageous as you will be doing exactly the same thing as live trading – without real money. This way, you can test your strategy and pick out the flaws f there are any.
If, after you have tested your strategy, you are confident that you are getting consistent results, you could go live. Your strategy should not stop there, though. Once you engage in live trading, you must take care to instill strict discipline when it comes to money management. Do not deviate from your strategy once it is put in place. This is perhaps the foremost reason for traders to suddenly lose everything. Always remember that you cannot win all the time and that losses are part of trading. If you have a strategy in place, do not scramble to recoup your losses outside the boundaries of your strategy. The trend is that winning will come soon after your losses.
One rule you should stick to is never trading with more than 2% of your account at risk on a single trade. Whether you win or lose, this percentage is going to get you the long term results that you are aiming for.
Short Term Trading
Profitable trading dengan long term trend following itu jelas2 nyata.Saya selalu sebut contoh turtle system yg dari curtis faith, yg kemudian kami bikin EA nya exactly as the said rules, hasilnya bener2 profit. Kami modifikasi, hasilnya bahkan lebih cantik lagi. Begitu juga dengan sistem "Aberration" yg pakai deviasi, alias Bollinger band, yg juga mengadopsi filosofi long term trend following, jelas2 profitable.
Gak ada prediction, gak ada hal2 canggih, hanya averages, deviasi, true range, etc..
Profitabilitas sistem2 di horizon long term itu sangat ditentukan oleh lengkapnya suatu sistem. Gak cuman entry - exit. Karena kalau mengandalkan entry-exit polos, sistem yg entry di 55 day b/o, exit di 20 day b/o, pasti bakalan losing. Apalagi yg entry di b/o bands, exit di b/o bands lainnya. Ugly banget deh..
Tapi ternyata, karena adanya komponen risk management (position sizing, pre-determined SL), trailing exit, dan multiple entry utk memanfaatkan trending session semaksimal mungkin, akhirnya suatu sistem yg sangat simple malah menjadi profitable.
Itu cerita saya di lembaran2 yg lalu. Namanya juga org lagi belajar selalu kena sindrom kaget, baru tau kayak gitu saya pikir: "that was the ONLY answer"..
Tapi ternyata perjalanan belum selesai. Sistem long term kayak gitu nggak feasible utk dijalankan kalau hanya mentradingkan capital $5k, apalagi cuman $400. Kecuali kalau trading itu hanya hobby. Baru layak dijalankan secara komersial kalo ada capital 100k ke atas, itu pun dengan efisiensi di komponen2 fixed cost. "Gak nendang" banget deh...
So, akhirnya, berangkat dari hasil belajar sebelumnya, lanjut bertapa lagi, riset lagi.
Kerangkanya masih sama: systematic trading, yg ujung2nya bisa di-mekanisasi.
Hasilnya: Short term trading si doable. Mission very possible.
Kuncinya:
- FX market punya pola volatilitas intraday yg sangat siklik. Hal ini termanifestasi pada batasan penggunaan suatu sistem tertentu pada jam2 tertentu saja. Akhirnya bakalan ada saat2 di mana kita menggunakan prinsip mean-reversion, dan ada saat2 di mana kita bisa menggunakan prinsip momentum.
- Profil Risk-to-Reward ratio per single trade nya ternyata inverted.
- Penentuan SL dan TP mengacu pada gerakan rata2 historical per satuan waktu tertentu, dilakukan dgn menarik value dari ATR (average true range), sehingga didapat suatu sistem yg sangat robust: menggunakan parameter yg sama utk semua currency pairs, dan profit di semua pairs. Robust.
Jadi, teman2 seperjuangan ku di sini, let me tell you here: jangan menyerah. Jangan berkecil hati.
Kalau gak percaya my story, berikut saya sertakan kutipan tulisan dari blog nya covel, komentar ed seykota dan covel tentang short term trading:
http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/000314.html
Ed Seykota was recently asked in his forum:
"I am new to trend following and wish to ask you what your favorite chart is for determining a given market's trend? Daily, Weekly, Yearly, Hourly?"
Ed responded:
"Hmmm...your list seems to lack scaling options for minute, second, and millisecond. If you want to go for the really high frequency stuff, you might try trading visible light, in the range of one cycle per 10-15 seconds. Trading gamma rays, at around one cycle per 10-20 seconds, requires a lot of expensive instrumentation, whereas you can trade visible light "by eye." I don't know of even one short-term trader, however, who claims to show a profit at these frequencies. In general, higher frequency trading succumbs to declining profit potential against non-declining transaction costs. You might consider trading a chart with a long enough time scale that transaction costs are a minor factor - something like a daily price chart, going back a year or two."
I agree with Ed's pithy wisdom, but he is not saying short term is impossible.
There do exist shorter term systematic traders who have done quite well (Toby Crabel, Jim Simons). They would agree with Ed that their style is hard. The shorter you go the more you need great execution, fantastic data and multiple systems. To be a great shorter term mechanical trader is a different animal than trend following, but it is a style that a select few have mastered.
Short term vs long term systems
Short term systems usually produce these outcomes:
Many small profits, usually consecutively. They may come as frequent as 70-80%.
A big losing trade will come occasionally, causing drawdowns. This is seldom, but alwas come and never can be predicted. Its just the nature of the system. This may as frequent as 20-30%.
Equity curve profile looks like this red lines in the picture at the bottom of this post.
Meanwhile, long term trendfollowing systems have the opposite profile:
Small losing trades usually happen regularly and consecutively. They are 60-70% of the total statistics. These are when cuting small losses.
Big profit comes when the system ride trends. They are seldom. And hardly are consecutively. We can not predict when it'll come, but it is promised by the nature of the market.
The equity curve profile looks like the blue lines in the picture below.
Short term systems includes the bolltrade, the multilot systems, the short term breakout systems, etc.
Long term systems includes the turtles, the aberration, and several others.
They all pretty consistent with those profile I mentioned.
