Profitable trading dengan long term trend following itu jelas2 nyata.Saya selalu sebut contoh turtle system yg dari curtis faith, yg kemudian kami bikin EA nya exactly as the said rules, hasilnya bener2 profit. Kami modifikasi, hasilnya bahkan lebih cantik lagi. Begitu juga dengan sistem "Aberration" yg pakai deviasi, alias Bollinger band, yg juga mengadopsi filosofi long term trend following, jelas2 profitable.
Gak ada prediction, gak ada hal2 canggih, hanya averages, deviasi, true range, etc..
Profitabilitas sistem2 di horizon long term itu sangat ditentukan oleh lengkapnya suatu sistem. Gak cuman entry - exit. Karena kalau mengandalkan entry-exit polos, sistem yg entry di 55 day b/o, exit di 20 day b/o, pasti bakalan losing. Apalagi yg entry di b/o bands, exit di b/o bands lainnya. Ugly banget deh..
Tapi ternyata, karena adanya komponen risk management (position sizing, pre-determined SL), trailing exit, dan multiple entry utk memanfaatkan trending session semaksimal mungkin, akhirnya suatu sistem yg sangat simple malah menjadi profitable.
Itu cerita saya di lembaran2 yg lalu. Namanya juga org lagi belajar selalu kena sindrom kaget, baru tau kayak gitu saya pikir: "that was the ONLY answer"..
Tapi ternyata perjalanan belum selesai. Sistem long term kayak gitu nggak feasible utk dijalankan kalau hanya mentradingkan capital $5k, apalagi cuman $400. Kecuali kalau trading itu hanya hobby. Baru layak dijalankan secara komersial kalo ada capital 100k ke atas, itu pun dengan efisiensi di komponen2 fixed cost. "Gak nendang" banget deh...
So, akhirnya, berangkat dari hasil belajar sebelumnya, lanjut bertapa lagi, riset lagi.
Kerangkanya masih sama: systematic trading, yg ujung2nya bisa di-mekanisasi.
Hasilnya: Short term trading si doable. Mission very possible.
Kuncinya:
- FX market punya pola volatilitas intraday yg sangat siklik. Hal ini termanifestasi pada batasan penggunaan suatu sistem tertentu pada jam2 tertentu saja. Akhirnya bakalan ada saat2 di mana kita menggunakan prinsip mean-reversion, dan ada saat2 di mana kita bisa menggunakan prinsip momentum.
- Profil Risk-to-Reward ratio per single trade nya ternyata inverted.
- Penentuan SL dan TP mengacu pada gerakan rata2 historical per satuan waktu tertentu, dilakukan dgn menarik value dari ATR (average true range), sehingga didapat suatu sistem yg sangat robust: menggunakan parameter yg sama utk semua currency pairs, dan profit di semua pairs. Robust.
Jadi, teman2 seperjuangan ku di sini, let me tell you here: jangan menyerah. Jangan berkecil hati.
Kalau gak percaya my story, berikut saya sertakan kutipan tulisan dari blog nya covel, komentar ed seykota dan covel tentang short term trading:
http://www.michaelcovel.com/archives/000314.html
Ed Seykota was recently asked in his forum:
"I am new to trend following and wish to ask you what your favorite chart is for determining a given market's trend? Daily, Weekly, Yearly, Hourly?"
Ed responded:
"Hmmm...your list seems to lack scaling options for minute, second, and millisecond. If you want to go for the really high frequency stuff, you might try trading visible light, in the range of one cycle per 10-15 seconds. Trading gamma rays, at around one cycle per 10-20 seconds, requires a lot of expensive instrumentation, whereas you can trade visible light "by eye." I don't know of even one short-term trader, however, who claims to show a profit at these frequencies. In general, higher frequency trading succumbs to declining profit potential against non-declining transaction costs. You might consider trading a chart with a long enough time scale that transaction costs are a minor factor - something like a daily price chart, going back a year or two."
I agree with Ed's pithy wisdom, but he is not saying short term is impossible.
There do exist shorter term systematic traders who have done quite well (Toby Crabel, Jim Simons). They would agree with Ed that their style is hard. The shorter you go the more you need great execution, fantastic data and multiple systems. To be a great shorter term mechanical trader is a different animal than trend following, but it is a style that a select few have mastered.
Short Term Trading
